Heat vs. Raptors Game Seven Pick – NBA Playoffs

It may not be the series than many fans wanted, but a Game Seven is still a Game Seven, so it would be wise to simply enjoy the drama as opposed to bemoaning the injuries and the at times, less-than-beautiful basketball.

The North will try to win a Game Seven for the second time in this NBA Playoffs and to exorcise decades of playoff frustrations.  Meanwhile, Dwyane Wade will try to dive back into the wayback machine one more time and carry the Heat to a pleasantly surprising conference finals.  No Bosh, no Whiteside, but don’t tell Wade and Dragic they are at a disadvantage.  With Valencuinas out on the other side, this series has come down to backcourt play.  Lowry got the best of the in Game Five.  Dragic and Wade owned Game Six.

So it all comes down to today…

Despite being very surprised by the Thunder’s ability to conquer the Spurs early, we adjusted quickly and enter tonight’s Game Seven winners of three of our last four NBA picks and looking to cap off yet another winning week.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors -4.5

This one really comes down to who and what you trust more.  Is it decades and decades of historical precedent?  Home teams WIN Game Seven.  They just DO.  In fact, they have won a whopping 80% of them historically. It held true to form in Round One, where BOTH of today’s teams did just that; win Game Seven on their home floor.

So that is a HUGE historical checkmark in the Raptors column.

But there are some interesting things at play for Miami as well.  They are 7-1in their last eight games facing elimination.  They are 3-0 so far in this postseason.  And yes, that means they won a few back with some guy named LeBron, but there is also some credence to the “Dwyane Wade is stone-cold good in clutch moments and has enough in the tank to get them over the finish line”

Toronto is just 2-6 historically in closeout games, which is staggeringly bad.  So the big question is, what do you trust more?  Home court and Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, or D-Wade and Dragic.

I’m going with the latter.  Toronto, though still alive and favored to advance today, just doesn’t seem very good in this postseason.  Miami is depleted, but still has some scoring punch in the backcourt.  I like them to be just a bit better and certainly a bit calmer.  This is just another day at the office for Wade.  This is the weight of a city, a franchise, and a COUNTRY on the hefty shoulders of Kyle Lowry, who has shown some flashes of being better in Games Five and Six, but still has had two straight rough postseasons.

I like a good game today, and am definitely not opposed to grabbing some value on the moneyline, but am definitely going with the Heat and the points.

Free Pick: Miami Heat +4.5

Chris Scheeren / Author