Heat vs Spurs Pick NBA – June 11th

NBA Finals – Game Three (Series Tied 1-1)

The stat has been bandied about in the media a ton this week; the team that wins Game Three in the NBA Finals when the series is tied 1-1 wins the series.  Every time.  Except for of course the Dallas Mavericks two years ago, who beat this same Miami Heat team… so…. Yeah.

The first two games of this series have been the exact opposite of the Pacers series.  The Heat have outplayed the Spurs, or played them at least even, for seven of the eight quarters – the lone exception being the fourth quarter of the first game when San Antonio and Tony Parker stole home court advantage.  Given that fact, why are people SO down on San Antonio?  It seems to me that Miami has played just fine.  They are the best road team in all of the NBA, so why the general feeling that they are in trouble??

Let’s dig into the matchup tonight and see if we can make it a perfect 3-0 ATS in the NBA Finals.

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs -2 (Total: 187)

The talk of the basketball world was Lebron’s ferocious block on Tiago Splitter, and while it was certainly a scream-out-loud at the television moment, it is far from the biggest takeaway from that game.  TO me, the jarring thing was how absolutely instantaneously the heat can catch fire and put a game away.  With two teams who have been playing close most of the time, the fact that the Heat have that “spurtability” would frighten me as a Spurs fans.

The second takeaway would be the troubling lack of production from Manu Ginobili, who looks even more hurt and ‘old’ than Dwyane Wade, and Timmy Duncan.  Is Duncan, the 37-year old First Team All-NBA player really that bothered by the defense of the Heat?  Udonis Haslem, Chris Bosh (at limited times) and Chris Andersen are certainly not earning All-Defensive team honors anytime soon (though Haslem is a good and willing defender).  Duncan is going to have to find his stride at home tonight or the Spurs are in some trouble.

Danny Green has been spectacular shooting the basketball.  While that is a positive, it is also an unsustainable.  At some point, regression to the norm occurs.  He isn’t going to shoot 85% form long range all series.  SO when that regression does occur, also factor in the Lebron hasn’t scored over 20 points yet this series.  Do you think that is likely to continue for much longer?  Me neither.

I know the Spurs are at home, and I know the media momentum has swung their way.  But I’m seeing a different series on my television.  I see a series where the Heat are getting open looks much easier than the Spurs generally allow.  I see a team with more talent up and down the roster, not even talking about the fact they have a transcendent superstar in his prime in Lebron James.

I like the Heat to recapture home court advantage tonight.  If you can shave a little juice off the line by getting a moneyline on them straight-up, I’d go for it.  Otherwise, the +2 won’t harm anything.

Free Pick:  Miami Heat +2