My NBA picks haven’t been up to par lately, but I’m pushing out a couple tonight in hopes to get back on track. I like the Pelicans vs. Heat game to go Over and you can also see how Andruw views tonight’s Blazers vs. Nuggets showdown in Portland.
This second pick goes down in San Antonio, where the Spurs will host the rival Rockets. It’s unknown as I write this if Chris Paul will be active for this game, but either way I think you’re getting way too much value with Houston in what is being priced as a pick’em at Sportsbetting.ag and other NBA betting sites.
So it would seem. Both of these teams have been very tough to peg and because of that, I felt this was a game a lot of bettors would want a closer look at.
Let’s dive into this showdown and see what the best play is:
Houston Rockets (PK, -110) @ San Antonio Spurs (PK, -110) Total: 217 (-110)
Neither of these teams are playing very good basketball right now. The Spurs just got creamed in Minnesota and the Rockets have lost four straight. Both teams have at least 10 losses and do not look like the playoff threats – let alone title contenders – many expected them to be.
Something has to break here, though. The Rockets are bound to snap this skid, but they may have a tough time doing so in San Antonio, where the Spurs are 6-3 on the year. Houston is also just 5-6 on the road.
I’m not sure the home/away splits are damning either way, while this pick’em game nullifies any edge you’d try to find in the against the spread data.
This Total feels a bit low and could be worth targeting, but I think the best play is banking on Houston snapping out of their funk. The beauty here is the Rockets could get this game regardless, but if you bet on them early before the Chris Paul news is official you could be getting a massive steal.
These are two of the slowest teams in the NBA. I can’t argue against that. But they’re also two of the weakest defensive teams in the league. Both teams average right around 108 points per game and give up 110+ points per game. At some point the more talented offensive team – Houston – is going to catch fire and start winning games.
The Spurs aren’t just bad defensively; they no longer have a key on-ball defender to lean on.
They can’t stop people inside and they don’t have anyone to slow down Harden in isolation. The Rockets do, as P.J. Tucker can get in DeMar DeRozan’s face and Clint Capela’s size and length can at least potentially disrupt things for the Spurs in the paint.
This is a game both teams need and will want to have and I expect both to come to play. If you want the winner, I’d lean toward the Rockets. Betting against James Harden simply isn’t a great way to make a living.
The fact that you get the Rockets at -110 – even in their current form – is a great reason to toss caution to the wind and roll with them.
San Antonio took the first meeting this year, but the Rockets have taken three of the last five. Look for them to snap their losing streak with a big road win tonight.