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Jazz vs. Celtics NBA Pick – December 15th

These odds were taken from BetOnline at 9:59 am CT on 12/15/2017.

Another loss came on Thursday, as the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors missed out on a beatable Over by just three points. I know this is a rough stretch here, but context is everything. I encourage you to consider the process, as well as how close these losses have actually been.

A win is coming and eventually a winning streak will follow. I’m just 11-15 on the year, but eventually I’ll get out of this funk. Friday night gives me plenty of opportunities to do just that, as a whopping 11 games grace the schedule.

There are many paths to consider, but honestly, there’s a lot that also look scary. Some of these spreads are flat out awful, while teams like the Thunder, Bulls, Blazers and Wizards have been impossible to figure out this year.

I’m steering clear of those games, while I’m not sure I trust the Rockets to cover a -7.5 point spread against the Spurs with Kawhi Leonard. That’s not the game I’ll be targeting, but it’s probably my second favorite play of the day and one I’d seriously consider if laying multiple bets.

The Spurs feel like one of the funnest upset picks of the day, but I think my favorite bet is going to go down at the TD Garden, where the Boston Celtics host the Utah Jazz.

Utah Jazz (+6) @ Boston Celtics (-6) Total: 199

The Jazz have burned me a bit this year, so this might be the perfect time to continue betting against me with Utah’s nice +210 Money Line at Bovada. In all seriousness, the Jazz have not been finishing games and most recently lost to the Bulls in Chicago. I can’t get behind them, while the Celtics have been really tough in just about every regard this season.

Boston has been a dominant 24-6 on the year, 13-2 at home, 9-1 against the Western Conference and 20-8-2 against the spread. The home dominance is what makes me love this bet, as the Celtics clearly get up to defend their home court and have also churned out an elite ATS record (7-4-2) when favored at home.

There is a mild case for some revenge here on Utah’s side. Even though Gordon Hayward isn’t playing (leg), he left Utah to play for the Celtics. It’s not crazy to think Utah bands together here and gets a big road upset. That would snap an ugly 4-game losing streak, but with Hayward not even playing, I don’t see that as much of a driving force.

A bigger factor is Boston’s elite home record and Utah’s inability to get wins (2-10) out on the road. I don’t see any way in backing them with such a horrid road mark, while they also happen to be taking on arguably the best team in the league. It’s not like they’ve been awesome against the spread (4-6) when considered underdogs on the road, either.

Rudy Gobert is back and healthy, but he actually hasn’t done enough to fix Utah’s issues. A normally stout defensive team, the Jazz have been terrible on that end of the floor lately, allowing 100+ points in each of their last four losses.

I think Boston’s style and defensive tendencies slow this game down a bit and give Utah a chance to beat the spread, but the safest bet here is probably the Celtics as a straight up bet. The value isn’t crazy there (-240 Money Line at BetOnline) but it’s also not terrible for one of the best teams in the league on their home floor.

I’m just looking to snap this skid and start a winning streak going into the weekend. I also don’t hate Boston to cover here (-110), but this drought has to end and I think a Celtics home win will suffice.

If you want more value, the Spurs ATS are my second favorite pick tonight. They went 3-1 against the Rockets last year and in the only game they lost, they fell by two points. Kawhi Leonard is back and they play some of the best defense in the league, so I like their chances to beat an 8-point spread.

Pick: Boston Celtics (-240)

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