Knicks vs. Timberwolves Pick NBA – November 30th

We took the loss last night with the Detroit Pistons heading into Charlotte and absolutely whipping the Hornets.  But by no means was that the strangest result in a night in the NBA that might have thrown a few betters for a loop.

First, the defending champion Cavs got blown out in Milwaukee for just their third loss on the season.  Then the Clippers dropped a third straight game, this time in double-overtime, to the lowly Nets in a game that was highlighted by Doc Rivers going absolutely apoplectic in the first overtime and earning an early shower.  And lastly, the Spurs have already QUADRUPLED last season’s home loss total with a completely inexplicable home loss to the Orlando Magic.

It was a STRANGE STRANGE night in the NBA, and perhaps the first sign that we are entering that odd malaise we get a few times in the NBA where it becomes less about metrics and more about guessing WHO is going to show up (or be in the lineup) on a given night.  February is historically the tricky month for lack of interest.  Perhaps it is starting early.  Christmas is always a nice refocusing flash point, but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on over the next two or three weeks.

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Today’s Free Pick:

New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

If I can get the more talented team at home and not lay too many points, it is always going to pique my interest.  The Knicks have had more success of late, but it is important to remember that much of that success has come inside the Garden.  Once they hit the road, things get a little less pretty.  They enter tonight with a 1-6 road record and are just 2-5 ATS.

Meanwhile, Minnesota enters a miserable 5-12 straight up, and an equally miserable 5-12 ATS.  That makes them a bad bet on the surface, but I am still waiting on the regression to the statistical mean, and I think it is coming soon.  Minnesota SHOULD be better than they are.  Not just talentwise, but statistically.  They are 11th in offensive efficiency and despite a lousy record, their point differential is nearly even.  The Knicks have a substantially better record, but are worse in nearly even statistical category.

Sooner or later, Minnesota is going to edge closer to .500 and play closer to their analytics.  I think it starts tonight with a home win over the Knicks.  Minny has been bad ATS, but is 4-5 as the favorite.  I think they’ll even up that record tonight.

Free Pick:  Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5