It was a pretty good day for ‘dogs yesterday in Major League Baseball as a bunch of them cashed some profitable winning tickets last night. The largest was the Braves knocking off the Washington Nationals at +160 and the Brewers outlasting the Cubs in a marathon all-day affairs lasting over seven hours due to rain, also at +160. Five of the nine National League games were won by the dog yesterday, so is there some value on the board today with some of the lesser-regarded teams?
The Brewers are +178 with Chase Anderson on the mound, The Rockies are +110 underdogs at Cincinnati with Antonio Senzatela on the mound (6-1, 3.31 ERA) and the Reds on a seven-game losing streak. Those are potentially good values.
But today’s featured pick is heading to safer and more conservative waters for a line just to good to pass up…
Today’s MLB Pick:
Miami Marlins +166 at Los Angeles Dodgers -176 (Total: 8)
Dan Straily (1-3, 3.56 ERA) vs. Julio Urias (0-1, 3.43 ERA)
The math on this one is relatively simple; the Marlins have lost 19 of 23 games and lost seven straight losses by multiple runs (one win sprinkled in the mix as well). They are becoming the easiest fade wager in all of sports, and it seems foolish to let the free money fly by unclaimed. The Marlins do have the best (?) pitcher on the mound tonight in Dan Straily, but even he has only mustered one win with the pedestrian lineup supporting him.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are up to 25-18 after a lackluster starat to the season. The team many picked to unseat the Cubs in the National League finally look worthy of the preseason hype. They will have their work cut out facing Straily who blanked the Astros for five innings in his last outing, but he does have a jarring 8.46 ERA in three lifetime appearances against Los Angeles.
I have to trust the overwhelming trends in this matchup. Miami is giving up runline covers in nearly every game. They lose with consistency and the fact it is rarely a one-run loss allows up to be bolder and muscle up on the runline. The regular -176 line is a little slim for my liking, but on the runline at +120 is a nice value.
I’ll stick with the hot team at home facing the coldest team in all the Majors.
Today’s MLB Pick: LOS ANGELES DODGERS RUNLINE -1.5 (+120)