Mavericks vs Pacers Pick – NBA Nov 16

0-42. That was the previous record of NBA teams playing in Denver on the back end of a back-to-back.   Perhaps even more preposterous was the staggering 3-39 ATS mark of road teams in that same situation.  No one gets the best of Vegas as at 93% clip.  No-body.

There seemed to be no more automatic wager in sports that betting on the Nuggets at home against whatever hapless sap got dropped into the Pepsi Center for their second consecutive night of action.  Enter the Miami Heat.  Less than 20 hours after being embarrassed by the Clippers on national television, the Heat bounced back to snap opponent’s 42-game drought and knock off the Denver Nuggets 98-93.

There’s a reason I led you to Brooklyn over Boston last night instead of grabbing the tantalizing statistical candy of the Denver Nuggets.  Numbers may “never lie” but they certainly never tell the whole story either.  There are so many more factors at play in the NBA season; emotion, momentum, matchups, and frankly, will a team play HARD on a given night.  Something just felt a little too good to be true.  Call it “fool’s gold” in those Nuggets, and I’m glad we stayed away.

OK, on to tonight’s winner…

Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers -2.5 (Total: 184.5)

The Dallas Mavericks have handled the loss of their star a bit better than the Pacers have, though neither team has inspired a ton of confidence with their play the last few weeks.   The Mavericks have lost three of their last four, their only win being the most recent game against Washington (who is winless on the season).  The Mavericks will also be without Shawn Marion for the sixth straight game as he recovers from a strained knee ligament.

The Pacers have really struggled without Granger, much more than I thought they would, as they have been unable to replace the offense Granger delivers on a nightly basis.  Paul George seems a bit overwhelmed by being the primary perimeter option, and David West has played well, but asking the 33 year old power forward to carry the entire load is a bit optimistic.

The Pacers are averaging a league-low 89.6 points a night and shooting a barely-fathomable 39.8% from the floor.  Both are league-worsts.  Tonight, they get a visit from their former head coach Rick Carlisle, a defensive-minded coach.   I expect their offensive woes to continue.

When I first saw this line, I assumed that Dallas was laying the points.  They are not.  They are GETTING points.  It seems like a no-brainer to me.

Free Pick:  Dallas Mavericks +2.5