Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns NBA Pick – Game 1

The NBA is set up with another solid slate of playoff action on Monday night. Two games are up on the board throughout May 2. One of these games will be between the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns. These two teams will look for a fast start to earn a big win in Game 1. This game will tip off at around 10:00 PM Eastern time on TNT.

Dallas has earned a record of 4-2 throughout the playoffs. The Mavericks met up with the Utah Jazz in the first round and were able to erase an early 1-0 series deficit to win in six games. Dallas will look to carry that momentum into this series as they eye the Conference Finals. I expect the Mavericks to try and come out fast on the road in this one.

The Suns were able to earn a record of 4-2 throughout the first round. Phoenix met up with the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round. The Suns knocked off the Pelicans in six games despite Devin Booker dealing with some injury issues. Phoenix will look to remain hot as Booker gets healthier. The Suns will look to come out fast at home on Monday night.

These two teams have been strong throughout this postseason and will look for a big win in Game 1. The Mavericks were able to overcome a Doncic injury early to grab the series win. Phoenix showed why they were the best team in the NBA in the first round. If either team can come out quickly in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Dallas Mavericks +5 ½ (-110) +195 Over 214 ½ (-110)
Phoenix Suns -5 ½ (-110) -235 Under 214 ½ (-110)
Team Data Dallas Mavericks Phoenix Suns
Playoff Record 4-2 4-2
Away/ Home Playoff Record 2-1 2-1
Playoff PPG 104.7 111.3
Playoff PPG Away/ Home 107.7 112.0
Playoff PAPG 99.0 109.8
Playoff PAPG Away/ Home 104.7 107.0

Betting Trends

Dallas Mavericks

  • 50-36 ATS this season
  • 19-17 ATS as an underdog
  • 26-18 ATS in road games
  • 1-3 ATS after three or more days rest
  • 10-8 ATS against Pacific division
  • 5-1 ATS in Playoffs
  • 17-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or less
  • 18-3 ATS after scoring 100 points or less
  • 29-15 ATS against team with a winning record

Phoenix Suns

  • 48-39 ATS this season
  • 41-35 ATS as a favorite
  • 21-23 ATS in home games
  • 3-1 ATS after three or more days rest
  • 13-11 ATS against Southwest division
  • 4-1 ATS in Playoffs
  • 20-14 ATS against team with a winning record

These two teams met up three times throughout the regular season. Devin Booker put up 24 points in the first meeting as the Suns earned a 105-98 win. Mikal Bridges and Booker both scored 19 points in the second matchup as Phoenix earned a 112-104 win. Booker dropped 28 points in the third and final game as the Suns swept the season series with a 109-101 win.

Field Goal Shooting

The Mavericks have been solid shooting the ball in the playoffs. Dallas has made 44.4 percent of their shots from the field, which is 8th of the remaining 8 playoff teams. The Mavericks have shot 36.3 percent from deep, which is sixth in the postseason. Dallas has sunk 78.9 percent of their shots from the free throw line, which is 4th in the league.

Phoenix was strong shooting the ball in their first series. The Suns were shooting 52.3 percent from the field, which is 1st in the postseason. Phoenix has made 31.9 percent of their shots from behind the arc, which is 8th in the field of 8. The Suns have drained 80.7 percent of their shots from the charity stripe, which is 3rd in the playoffs.

The Suns have been the better team shooting the ball, but will look to improve from deep in this series. Dallas played strong defense in their first series, holding Utah to a 44.3 percent from the field. Phoenix will look for their defense to step up after allowing New Orleans to shoot 46.2 percent from the field. Both teams will look to step up on defense early in this one.

Top Performers

Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson were the leaders for Dallas in the first round. Doncic averaged 29 points, 10.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game. Brunson is averaging 27.8 points per game. Spencer Dinwiddie has averaged 15.3 points, while Dorian Finney-Smith is averaging 13.2 points per game. Reggie Bullock has averaged 10.7 points and Maxi Kleber is averaging 10.3 points per game.

Devin Booker and Chris Paul will look to take over for the Suns. Booker is averaging 23 points per game through three playoffs games. Paul has averaged 22.3 points and 11.3 assists per game. Deandre Ayton is averaging 20.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. Mikal Bridges has averaged 17.3 points, while Cameron Johnson is averaging 11 points per game.

These two teams have been led by their stars throughout this postseason. The Mavericks will look for Brunson to remain hot after taking over early in the first round. Phoenix will look to Booker to improve as he gets healthier as well. If either team can have their stars step up early in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Pick Overview

These two teams have been strong in the postseason and will look for a big win in this one. Phoenix has been the better team and will look to grab an early series lead at home. The Mavericks pulled off an impressive series win against Utah and will look to keep it going. If the Suns can come out fast though, I think they can earn the win in Game 1.

Bovada has Phoenix listed as a -5 ½ against the spread in this one. This gives a solid edge to the Suns at home in Game 1. I think that this line is accurate with Phoenix playing better throughout the season and having the deeper lineup. The Suns will look to improve defensively early in this one. As slight favorites at home, I like the value on Phoenix in this one.

The Bet
Phoenix Suns -5.5
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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