Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors NBA Pick – Game 1

The NBA is set up with another strong slate of basketball throughout May 18. The Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors will look for a big win as they open up the Western Conference Finals. Both teams have played well so far and will look for a quick start in this one. This game will tip off at around 9:00 PM Eastern time on TNT.

Dallas has earned a record of 8-5 throughout the postseason after earning the fourth seed in the Western Conference. The Mavericks knocked off the Utah Jazz in the first round and the Phoenix Suns in the second round. Dallas has won their last two games and will look to come out fast in this one as well. The Mavericks will look to start this series strong as well.

The Warriors have put up a record of 8-3 so far in the playoffs as the third seed in the Western Conference. Golden State eliminated the Denver Nuggets and the Memphis Grizzlies to reach the Conference Finals. The Warriors will look to come out fast as well in this one. Golden State will look for a big win at home to open up the series.

These two teams have been strong throughout the postseason and will look to open the Conference Finals with a big win. Golden State has had a little extra time off after knocking off Memphis in six games. The Mavericks were able to erase a 3-2 series deficit though to reach this round. If either team can come out fast in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Dallas Mavericks +5 (-110) +180 Over 214 (-115)
Golden State Warriors -5 (-110) -220 Under 214 (-105)
Team Data Dallas Mavericks Golden State Warriors
Playoff Record 8-5 8-3
Away/ Home Playoff Record 3-4 6-0
Playoff PPG 106.2 114.2
Playoff PPG Away/ Home 107.0 117.3
Playoff PAPG 101.9 110.2
Playoff PAPG Away/ Home 109.1 102.8

Betting Trends

Dallas Mavericks

  • 54-39 ATS this season
  • 22-20 ATS as an underdog
  • 27-21 ATS in road games
  • 8-5 ATS when playing on two days rest
  • 14-11 ATS against Pacific division
  • 9-4 ATS in Playoffs
  • 8-0 ATS after allowing 90 points or less
  • 15-14 ATS after a win by 10 points or more
  • 33-18 ATS against team with a winning record

Golden State Warriors

  • 47-46 ATS this season
  • 36-37 ATS as a favorite
  • 28-19 ATS in home games
  • 6-3 ATS when playing on three or more days rest
  • 9-15 ATS against Southwest division
  • 5-6 ATS in Playoffs
  • 15-15 ATS after allowing 100 points or less
  • 21-16 ATS after a win by 10 or more points
  • 27-21 ATS against team with a winning record

These two teams met up four times during the season. Luka Doncic put up 26 points in the first meeting as the Mavericks earned a 99-82 win. Jonathan Kuminga scored 22 points off the bench as Golden State won the second game 130-92. Doncic dropped 34 points and 11 rebounds in the third game as Dallas won 107-101. Doncic finished with 41 points in the final game to lead the Mavericks to a 122-113 win.

Field Goal Shooting

Dallas has been solid shooting the ball these playoffs. The Mavericks have been shooting 45.3 percent from the field, which is 4th in the remaining field. Dallas has made 38.5 percent of their shots from behind the arc, which is 1st in the postseason. The Mavericks have drained 77.9 percent from the charity stripe, which is 3rd in the playoffs.

The Warriors have been strong shooting the ball on the postseason. Golden State has made 48.3 percent of their shots from the field, which is 1st in the remaining 4 teams. The Warriors have shot 37.6 percent from deep, which is 2nd in the playoffs. Golden State has sunk 74.1 percent of their shots from the free throw line, which is 4th in the postseason.

Golden State has been a bit better shooting the ball from the field in the postseason, but the Mavericks have been strong behind the arc. Both teams will look for their defenses to tighten up entering this series. Both teams will look to improve from the charity stripe. If either team can come out shooting strong, it could lead them to the win.

Top Performers

Luka Doncic has been the leader for the Mavericks in the playoffs. Doncic has averaged 31.5 points, 10.1 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game. Jalen Brunson is averaging 22.9 points per game. Spencer Dinwiddie has averaged 13.2 points, while Dorian Finney-Smith is averaging 11.6 points per game. Reggie Bullock has averaged 10.2 points and Maxi Kleber is averaging 10.1 points per game.

Steph Curry has been strong for Golden State in the postseason. Curry is averaging 26.9 points and 5.6 assists per game. Klay Thompson has averaged 20.4 points per game. Jordan Poole is averaging 19.3 points per game. Andrew Wiggins has averaged 14.5 points per game to round out the lineup throughout this playoff run.

These two teams have been led by their stars throughout the playoffs. Doncic has been great for Dallas all season long and will look to step up against a strong Warriors team. Curry and Thompson have been great in the playoffs as well and will look to remain hot. If either team can have some players step up though, it could be the difference.

Pick Overview

These two teams will look for a big win to open up their series on Wednesday night. The Warriors have been slightly better in the postseason, but Dallas won three of the four regular season matchups. I think Golden State will come out fast at home though. The Warriors have yet to lose at home in the playoffs and I think they will get another one to open this series.

Bovada has Golden State listed as a -5 against the spread in this one. This gives a solid edge to the Warriors to open this series with the win. I agree with this line as Golden State has the better one-two punch in this series. If the Warriors can come out quickly, I think they can hold on for the win. As slight favorites, I like the value on Golden State.

The Bet
Golden State Warriors -5
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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