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Mavericks vs. Warriors NBA Pick – December 14th

These odds were taken from GTbets at 10:19 pm CT on 12/14/2017.

I think I’ve learned my lesson; don’t bet against the Chicago Bulls. My nasty drought continued on Wednesday night, as the Utah Jazz lost by three to the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls, who had three wins on the year a week ago, have won four straight and are now responsible for three of my six incorrect picks during this losing streak.

It’s been a rough road with some bad beats, but I truck on into Thursday night’s light 5-game NBA betting slate. I’m still 11-14 on the year and with a win tonight I’ll slowly work my way back to .500.

The only game I see on the table that doesn’t scare me is a showdown at the Oracle Arena between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks. Dallas has kept it together (5-5 over their last 10 games), but they got housed when facing the Dubs earlier this year and have lost 7 in a row in this series.

The absence of Stephen Curry complicates matters in theory, but Dallas will also be without star rookie point guard Dennis Smith Jr. That’s not exactly a wash, but considering the Mavs sport an unsightly 2-10 road record, I’m not sure Curry being sidelined will matter.

I need a win tonight and the pickings are pretty slim. Odds are the Cavs or Dubs will cover, but my gut tells me the that may not even be the best bet on the board.

Dallas Mavericks (+11.5) @ Golden State Warriors (-11.5) Total: 212.5

I wish I could just tell you to bet hard on the Warriors so I can snap this nasty skid, but their best Money Line is -750 and that’s just gross. That isn’t making anyone any money and is really just a waste of time. Dallas as a straight up upset isn’t logical or even that intriguing, but their line (+600 at GTbets) is at least worth a cursory glance.

Ultimately, I’m looking at two bets here; Golden State to cover or for this low Total to go Over.

I honestly like both bets, but I’m a bit hesitant to back the Dubs to cover here, only because they haven’t been that great against the spread (13-15) on the year. Their numbers oddly enough only get worse when favored at home (4-8), while Dallas has been a little pesky (6-5-1 as the road underdog). The Mavs have not been good this year, but they’re actually not awful (13-15) against the spread, considering their record.

Dallas doesn’t win much, but they normally don’t get housed, either. In their last five games, the Mavs have been in respectable form with two wins and three losses by 7 points or fewer. There is word that star Warriors forward Draymond Green (doubtful) also may not suit up for this one, which has me a little concerned. Combine the Mavs’ recent play and Golden State being down two key players, and I’m hesistant to target this spread.

Instead, my favorite bet tonight is going to be the Over. You just need 213 total points (-110) with GTbets offering a 212.5 Total at the time of this writing.

I understand the concern, which is two-fold. For one, the Over is just 13-15 for the Warriors and Dallas is not a great offensive team (they don’t even average over 100 points per game on the year). However, Golden State’s Over/Under record is skewed due to the fact that most of their games carry way higher Totals than this.

That means bettors are getting a break and with the Dubs playing at home and dictating the pace, I think there is a great chance this game pops off. That’s precisely what happened the last time these two teams faced, when Dallas put up 103 points and the two combined for an absurd 236 points.

Curry, DSJ and possibly Green are out tonight, so I do not anticipate a similar outcome. However, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are still on hand and have helped the Dubs top 101+ points in each of the team’s last five games. In fact, the only two times they didn’t score at least 111 points during that stretch, Golden State was on the road against defensive-minded teams like the Pistons and Hornets.

Dallas does not offer up a strong defense, as they rank just 17th in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency. Golden State is a poor matchup for Dallas in that regard, but if Green is out, the Dubs have to lose some of their defensive bite. If he’s in, he only helps Golden State’s offensive be more dynamic and explosive.

Overall, I think the Dubs put up a good amount of points in a home win, but I’m not into this spread with Draymond Green possibly out. I’ll instead roll with a low Total and hope Dallas shows up offensively in this one.

Pick: Over 212.5 (-110)

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