I capped last week with a solid winner, as the Warriors (-110!) offered way too much value in a true pick’em game against the Milwaukee Bucks. The game was on the road and the Bucks had wrecked Golden State previously, but this is still the defending champs we’re talking about.
That was a nice win and it kept me hot, as I’ve overcome a recent rough patch to nail four of my last five picks. I’m also now 21-12 on the year with my NBA picks and if you’ve been rolling with me lately (or for the entire season) you’re very much in the green.
The aim is to keep the good times rolling on Monday, where bettors are greeted with a huge 11-game NBA schedule to work with. There are several avenues to consider tonight, but my favorite of the lot goes down in Denver, where the Nuggets host the Memphis Grizzlies.
Memphis Grizzlies (+2, -110) @ Denver Nuggets (-2, -110) Total: 198.5 (-115/-105)
This figures to be a very good game, as both of these teams have at least 15 wins already and have played balanced basketball. Memphis leads the Southwest Division, while Denver is technically tied for first in the Northwest.
Suffice to say, this one is a big deal for both sides and the early edge favors Denver, who are a blistering 9-3 at home this year. The Nuggets are historically disappointing on the road, but when they play at the Pepsi Center they almost always show up.
Early indications are pace and defensive ability will keep this game relatively in check, so if you bet on the Total the Under actually might be the play. I’d personally stay away from this specific Total, but both of these teams are bottom-five in pace (Grizz are dead last) and top-five in defensive efficiency.
They’re basically the same team in a lot of ways, but Memphis (7-6) hasn’t been very imposing on the road. Vegas wisely sides with Denver in this spot and if you’re looking for help ATS, the Nuggets (8-4) have done a solid job when favored at home in that regard, too.
I don’t think it’s ever as easy as looking at the home/away splits, of course. Denver is obviously immensely talented and if you compare these two teams, they have more offensive firepower and better overall talent.
Denver continues to be without both Will Barton and Gary Harris, but they still have enough on both ends of the floor to get the job done in this spot. They’ve been running hot with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games and obviously enjoy the comfort of playing at home.
The Nuggets have also fared well in this series. The Grizzlies did steal the first meeting this year, but that was in Memphis and it was by just two points. Denver otherwise dominated this matchup last season, going 3-1 in a four-game regular season series.
Denver has all the tools they need to combat Memphis. Nikola Jokic is a fantastic answer to Marc Gasol down low, Paul Millsap gives Denver the edge at the four spot and Jamal Murray can put pressure on Mike Conley on the offensive end.
I’d give Memphis the defensive edge, but teams can lose that bite a bit on the road.
I expect a tight game, but the Nuggets should get the job done in front of their home crowd as they try to keep pace with the Oklahoma City Thunder. I don’t like this spread, though, so I’ll just grab Denver as a straight up winner at a solid -130 price tag over at Sportsbetting.ag.