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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA Pick – November 14th

I was not enamored with much on Tuesday, as bettors got to work with a mild three-game NBA betting slate. I opted to back the Hornets at -7 in Cleveland, as literally everything pointed to them at least winning and covering a pretty beatable spread seemed very doable.

It wasn’t. Charlotte was ice cold from start to finish, while top scorer Kemba Walker shot an abysmal 2-for-16 on the night. This was a truly horrendous performance and it allowed the Cavs to win big at home. Considering that was just Cleveland’s second victory of the year, it was altogether mind-boggling.

Rinse and repeat going into Wednesday’s massive basketball betting slate, I reckon. The good news is I’m still 14-5 with my NBA picks despite the loss.

Let’s move on with a pick from tonight’s game between the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies:

Memphis Grizzlies (+10, -112) @ Milwaukee Bucks (-10, -108) Total: 216 (+100/-120)

The Deer are huge 10-point favorites in this one, as they’re at home (6-0 there this year) against a middling Grizzlies squad that are 7-5 through 12 games, but just 2-5 away from home.

I don’t think anyone is really questioning the outcome here. Milwaukee should win and while this spread is dicey, they do have a shot at covering. The Bucks have been good against the spread (8-4-1), but I don’t love going after spreads this steep unless the opponent is pure trash.

Memphis can at least still play defense (3rd in the NBA) and the pace of this game (Milwaukee pushes it at the 5th fastest clip in the league) should help their normally inefficient offense. I tend to favor the home team in these spots, which probably means the Bucks pick up the tempo and get Memphis to play a little faster than they’d like.

For all of their defensive prowess, the Grizzlies are a very middle of the road squad (15th) at stopping the three. That could be a problem on the road, as the Bucks have added a plethora of shooters and have the green light to pull the trigger from deep. That’s equated to Milwaukee ranking #1 in long balls made and 5th in three-point shooting percentage.

Milwaukee can fill it up and it’s also pretty crucial to note Memphis doesn’t really have anyone that can slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Everything points to a Bucks win in this one, but my favorite bet is actually going to be the Over. In today’s NBA everyone is playing faster and scoring the ball at a crazy rate, yet the presence of a slow and inefficient Memphis team brings Milwaukee’s normally obscene Totals doen to 216 for this showdown.

If this game were in Memphis I’d listen to the noise, but the Bucks average 121.6 points per game and have a slew of guys even beyond The Greek Freak that can push the ball up the floor, attack and hit from deep. Not even the Golden State Warriors average that many points, so to get the Bucks at an Over/Under discount is pretty rare.

The proof is in the pudding, too. The Over is 10-3 for the Bucks this year and that’s tops in basketball. Obviously the way Memphis plays – and the fact that this could be a blowout – does complicate matters, but if the Bucks even sniff their season average, Memphis can still get slammed and help hit the Over.

The beauty here is the value. The Bucks will do most of the heavy-lifting, yet this game hitting 217 total points gets you a sweet +100 price tag at Sportsbetting.ag. There are a lot of bets on the table tonight, but I’m not sure I like another one more.

My Pick
OVER
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