The Golden State Warriors worked out nicely for the second time in a row, as they covered their 10-point spread in a demolition of the Hawks in Atlanta on Wednesday.
That win kept me from dropping a second game in a row and upped my season NBA picks record to a healthy 20-12. Building a winning streak is the main goal and on Friday night (I took Thursday off) I think we can do that by going right back to the well with the defending champs.
Golden State did get absolutely rocked the last time they faced the Milwaukee Bucks and this second meeting is on the road, but how often do we get the Warriors at a -110 price? Pretty much never, so I’m digging them tonight and I’ll break down why that wager makes sense:
Golden State Warriors (PK, -110) @ Milwaukee Bucks (PK, -110) Total: 240 (-107/-113)
The Bucks are offering just as much value, to be sure. Milwaukee easily won the first game at the Oracle Arena and are a staggering 12-2 at home this year.
That’s admittedly tough to mess with, but the Dubs are a team that historically gets hot and is tough to slow down once they’re scorching. They aren’t there yet, but with two straight wins and a healthy Stephen Curry back on the floor (and lighting it up), it’s quite possible they’re about to go on a nice run.
Golden State has all of the incentive here and this provides them with an opportunity to send the rest of the league a message. The Bucks made their statement with an emphatic first win, but the Dubs probably don’t want to get swept in the season series and they’ll be itching to return the favor.
Their message will be that while the Bucks matchup with them very well, this is a showdown they can still emerge from. It’s also to say that they’re still the best team in the league and that the Pacific Division is still theirs to dominate.
I’m liking the Dubs no matter what tonight, but the possible return of big man Draymond Green (toe) makes them even more appealing. This is a true pick’em and these teams aren’t separated by much right now, but when you get the Warriors at -110 or better, you need to consider why you’re not taking that bet.
The Dubs are just 5-7 on the road and haven’t been quite as dominant this year, but slow starts tend to be a bit overrated. I think they’re about to heat up and scoring a big road win over a team that embarrassed them earlier in the year will be part of their redemption tour.
The driving force is Chef Curry. He’s been lights out since his return from a groin injury and Milwaukee really doesn’t have anyone that can stop him. Even if they find a way to cool him off, the Warriors still have Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson to rely on.
Green potentially being back helps Golden State’s defense and also assists their offense in general. I don’t think you need him back on the floor to take this bet, but if he plays I’d only be more confident.
The reality is this is the Dubs in a tense game and the price is awesome. I respect the Bucks on their home floor, but that’s precisely what allows for this kind of value. It’s a risk worth taking and if you discover Golden State as an underdog somewhere, all the better.