Denver Nuggets (31-26) at Milwaukee Bucks (32-24)
We got back into the winner’s circle last night when we backed the Washington Wizards playing on the road against the New York Knicks. The Knicks are a garbage can fire of a team right now and can’t be trusted, even on their home court. It looks like we got a bit of a lucky cover as the Wizards won 118-113, just barely covering the -4.5 number. But it really it wasn’t all that close.
The Wizards were up 118-100 with 15 seconds left on the clock when Jarret Jack made a deep three-pointer to cut the lead to just five points. The Wizards did turn the ball over, and Tim Hardaway had a good look at a 12-footer to steal our cover, but in true Tim Hardaway fashion, he bricked it, and we walked away winners.
So, I am not going to say we got lucky to win, but we certainly didn’t get unlucky either. Either way, we cashed a ticket and move on to today’s pick. Today I will break down the matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Milwaukee Bucks.
It is the last day before the All-Star break, and we have just two games on the NBA slate. Even with a very short schedule, we were able to find some solid value though! The Denver Nuggets will travel to Milwaukee to face the Bucks Thursday night. The Nuggets are looking to hit the All-Star on a high note as they have won five out of their last six games.
The Bucks are equally as hot as they have won five out of their last six games as well. The Bucks are -3-point favorites tonight. The game total over-under is set at 214 points. Tipoff is scheduled for 5:00 PM PST from the BMO Harris Bradley Center.
The Denver Nuggets are in a huge battle to make the playoffs in the Western Conference. Just four and a half games separate the number three seed out west with the number ten slot! This is as tight of a race as I have ever seen in the NBA, with two good weeks you could go from being out of the payoffs to as high as the three seed.
And on the flipside, you could go from feeling very comfortable about your spot in the playoffs to on the outside looking in, with just a couple of bad games.
The problem for the Denver Nuggets is that they don’t get to play all their games at home! This Nuggets team is elite and home, and garbage on the road. The Nuggets 23-7 record in Denver is tied for the best home record in the Western Conference. But on the road? The Nuggets are just 8-19.
The road struggles for Denver make me feel like they are going to end up towards the bottom of that pack of teams fighting for the playoffs. You have to be able to win some games on the road in the NBA, and they just can’t do it. They are hoping to break through tonight on the road as they play against a Milwaukee team that has been great at protecting its home floor this season.
The Milwaukee Bucks have lots of reasons to feel good about themselves right now. Not only have they survived a crazy first half of the season, that saw them survive through a major injury to Jabari Parker, a blockbuster trade involving Greg Monroe, and the firing of head coach Jason Kidd, they are thriving. The Bucks are currently occupying the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference and are just a half a game back of the Washington wizards for a top four slot.
The Bucks are playing well at the moment, having won five of six and are excited that Jabari Parker is finally back on the court. They are easing Parker back into the rotation, but it is easy to see the emotional lift he has brought to the team.
The first half of the year this was essentially a one-man show as the Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo, has been forced to do it all for Milwaukee. Now that they have Parker back in the fold I expect big things out of Milwaukee in the second half of the year.
This is more situational betting for me. I get to back one of the best home teams in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks, against a team that can’t beat anybody on the road, in the Denver Nuggets. Denver has used that thin air at home to run up such a great home record that they have some people convinced they are a good team.
Well, I am not convinced. They stink on the road, and I can never see myself having confidence in this team to win a playoff series.
Couple that with the fact that the Bucks have Parker back on the floor, and are feeling really good about themselves right now, and I really like Milwaukee tonight. I don’t expect a blow-out, Denver is decent enough to keep pace. But I also expect this to be a fairly easy win and cover for Milwaukee tonight.
Feels like 114-102 Bucks. Give me the Milwaukee Bucks tonight -3-points at home.