Depending upon where the line landed last night, you may very well have won if you played along with last night’s pick. Dallas settled as a 2.5 point underdog, so many of you earned a covering win last night. I, however, took a tough-luck push as C.J. McCollum netted a game-winner with 0.9 seconds remaining. I am 0-2-1 in my last three picks with every non-win coming literally on the final possession.
Such is life sometimes when you walk the tightrope of blasting a pick out for the world to see close to 500 times a year – there are some thrilling wins where the breaks go your way and some days like the last three. All said, it was a pretty barren slate yesterday, so perhaps I should take my money back and be grateful…
Today there are a lot more games to choose from, so let’s see if we can find a landing spot with a little more margin to breathe.
Today’s NBA Pick:
Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks -4
I was crazy tempted to take Milwaukee at home tonight against Miami, the winning streak has to end soon, right? Right?!? But alas, I am staying away from the fire-emitting from the Heat and moving to a game I like a little more, and one that feels a little safer; Denver at Atlanta.
For starters, Denver is just 9-17 SU this season on the road. The Hawks home record isn’t great at just 15-11 SU, but they have reeled off 15 of 21 games and appear to be playing better basketball lately, the recent home loss to Utah aside. In their six losses, all but the road loss to Detroit and scorching Miami have been against playoff teams (Boston, Utah, Washington, the Clippers).
Atlanta has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Denver, winning four straight up as well. Denver has also failed to cover in five of their last six games, and despite getting some favorable attention for moving into the final Western Conference playoff position, this is still not a really good basketball team. They are eight games under .500 and are a Lottery team in just about any season in recent memory.
Lastly, look at the health situation. Gallinari is obviously out, but both Kenneth Farried and Emmauel Mudiay are listed as “questionable” tonight. If both scratch, this line could move further, so keep an eye on the injury reports this afternoon – or, if you like Atlanta no matter what, get in early. A scratch, especially Mudiay, could move it a point or two. Even if both play, it’s never a good sign if guys you are counting on might not be able to go…
I’ll take the home team at against a team that really struggles on the road, especially at this low price of -4 or -4.5.
Today’s Pick: Atlanta Hawks -4