Denver Nuggets (38-32) at Miami Heat (37-33)
We took a couple of days off to focus on the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament but are back today to break down more NBA action! We were on fire before taking a little break, having won ten out of our last twelve games. We look to stay hot tonight when I take a look at the matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat.
The Denver Nuggets will travel to Miami Monday night, trying to keep their post-season dreams alive. The Nuggets come into this one having lost to the NBA’s worst team, the Memphis Grizzlies, in their last game. For the Heat, they are glad to be home after a 1-2 West Coast road trip. Both teams come into this one banged up and may be missing key players in what is a must-win game for both squads.
The Heat are -2-point home favorites. The game total over-under is set at 216 points. Tipoff is scheduled for 4:30 PM PST from American Airlines Arena in Miami.
I have been a driving force behind the Denver Nuggets hate bandwagon all year long. They are a great home team. But on the road, they are amongst the worst teams in the entire league. Yet for some reason, they are still favored in games on the road.
We saw this in their last three road games, all spots that I bet against them, where they were road favorites and lost outright. And those were too awful teams that have no shot to make the playoffs this year.
The loss to Memphis in their last game was especially brutal. Memphis is trying their best to tank this year to move up the NBA draft lottery board. They had lost nineteen straight games before the Nuggets came to town.
The Nuggets play their next six games on the road, and unless they figure a way to get their act together in a hurry, this stretch will end any chance they have at making the playoffs this season. The Nuggets are currently a game and a half back of the Minnesota Timberwolves for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
To make matters worse, the Nuggets will be without Gary Harris, their leading scorer tonight in Miami. Harris is averaging almost eighteen points a game and that scoring production is going to be hard to replace. I have been looking for ways to position myself on the other side of Denver on the road for weeks, and that was against bad teams. Tonight, they must play against a playoff caliber team in the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat may be without Hassan Whiteside and Dwayne Wade tonight. That is the only thing keeping this from being a seven or eight-point line. Miami has had their struggles recently as well as they have lost three of their last six games. They are, however, looking like they are going to make the playoffs as they have built up a five and a half-game lead over the nine seed in the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons.
Miami would love to get hot late though as they are just three games back of the Washington Wizards for the four seed. These last couple of weeks are going to be very exciting as the Eastern Conference is so bunched up. One good week and you are a top three seed, one bad week and you end up in the eight hole or miss the playoffs altogether.
The Denver Nuggets are an absolutely terrible road team. They can’t even beat really bad teams on the road. And this is in a situation where they badly need to win.
They lost to Dallas, the Lakers, and the Grizzlies on the road this month. Those are all teams that are actively tanking and trying to lose. The Nuggets have the same amount of road wins as the Sacramento Kings and only one more road win than the Phoenix Suns. Those are teams that are going to get top five lottery picks in the draft, not make the playoffs.
I truly just don’t understand why the Nuggets are getting so much respect on the road this year. They have been a favorite in their last three road games and are just two points underdogs tonight. They are 0-3 in that stretch. Would you want to back the Suns or Kings on the road as favorites right now? The answer to that is clearly a no, so why would anybody want to back the Nuggets in the same spot?
This line makes no sense. I don’t care that Miami is going to be short-handed tonight. They could be playing all backups, and I would like them at home. This Denver team is an absolute joke on the road, and I will continue my recent trend of betting against them on the road any chance that I get.
Give me the Miami Heat -2-points tonight on their home floor!