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Nuggets vs. Heat Pick – April 2nd

There's a ton of great NBA action today - for our pick, we are honing in on a big playoff battle between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat.

Our NBA run came to a halt last night as the Chicago Bulls won at home against the Hawks but came up a bucket short of the cover.  Those are the breaks sometimes, but we will try to get back on track and rolling again today with a lot of interesting games to choose form.

But first, lets take a look at a loaded Sunday slate.  The action starts at 1pm EST on ABC with the currently first-seeded Celtics heading to the Garden to take on their rival Knicks.  The C’s SHOULD win, but the Knicks have a funny knack for cranking it up a few times a year in nationally-televised games.  Should they falter, the Cavaliers can edge back in front in their 6pm matchup against desperate Indiana.  The Pacers have been a playoff team all year but a current 1-5 slide has them in a three wat tie for the final two spots in the East.  They NEED a big win, but at 11-27 SU on the road, it feels unlikely no matter how badly the Cavs have struggled.

The action keeps rolling at 3:30 on ABC as the Jazz try to hold on to homecourt in the first round of the playoffs hosting the Spurs.  It’ll be a fun measuring stick game for the only new face in the Western Conference playoff landscape.

Likewise, for the Wizards who get a fun opportunity to gain some attention and confidence as they try to snap the Warriors ten-game winning streak.  It’s a tall task, but should be a fun game at the least.

It’s a great day of NBA action.  Here’s my favorite play on the board.

Today’s NBA Pick:

Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat -4

The Heat are no longer an automatic ATM machine vomiting out free money.  But that doesn’t mean they aren’t still a decent wager down the stretch.  They are fresh off a home and home split with the Knicks and are only 5-5 SU in their last ten games.  That’s the “back to Earth” portion of the Miami story.  But the landing wasn’t a “crash,” it was simply a regression back to reasomable, but still positive, expectations.  It’s fair to view this team as a solid playoff team; not as the “best team in basketball” like they were for two full months, but still a SOLID playoff-worthy squad.

Their larger trend is still an excellent one.  They are 16-4 SU in their last 20 home games.  They are a staggering 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games as well.  That’s an 80% cashing out clip, which is frankly unheard of in Vegas.

Meanwhile, Denver appears to be fizzling out in their pursuit of the final playoff spot out West.  Portland has hit the gas pedal while the Nuggets have dropped five of their last seven games.  They are still a nice 5-2 ATS in that span, but are not getting the W’s they desperately need.  They have lost three straight games and failed to cover in any of them and the competition wasn’t even very good; New Orleans, Charlotte and Portland.

I like Miami to get a convincing home win tonight, even without Deon “DFW” Waiters.  They’ll miss their brash scorer, they are 3-4 SU in seven games without him, but should find that absence offset by the Nuggets likely missing Jameer Nelson and Will Barton.

Today’s Pick:  Miami Heat -4