Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Pick – November 21st

I bounced back with another win on Tuesday, as the Knicks did precisely what I thought they’d do and put up a fight at home against the Blazers. New York wasn’t quite good enough to offer loads of value with an upset, but they only lost by four and easily beat their +8 spread.

The win upped my record to 17-6 on the young NBA season and also handed me my sixth win in my last eight tries. I liked the Clippers, Washington’s Over, Toronto to cover and Miami to cover elsewhere, and of that group I would have only had one possible win.

Needless to say, you need to trust your gut when it comes to NBA betting. I really felt the Knicks could hold firm and give Portland a run for their money and they answered the call. Let’s try to keep the positive momentum going tonight as the NBA spews out a massive 13-game schedule.

There are obviously a ton of bets to consider on this slate, but the one I have my eye on the most resides in Golden State, where the defending champion Warriors hope to snap a three-game skid in a showdown with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Most bettors will ignore the Dubs, who seem dysfunctional and are sliding, but they’re back home after a road trip and are too good to keep losing. OKC is a tough opponent and they have a healthy Russell Westbrook back in the fold, but the Dubs at -1 (-110) is just so cheap. Let’s break down why the Warriors are one of the better NBA picks to roll with on Wednesday night:

Oklahoma City Thunder (+1, -110) @ Golden State Warriors (-1, -110) Total: 221.5 (-110)

I know the hesitation here. The Warriors aren’t the same team sans Stephen Curry and there’s no getting around that. In fact, in the six games Curry has missed with his injury, Golden State is just 2-4. They’re also just 1-4 since the Draymond Green vs. Kevin Durant spat went down.

Of course, we’re now a bit removed from that whole situation and the glaring similarity all of these recent losses share is that they’ve all been on the road.

Golden State tends to be a little more united at the Oracle Arena and call me naive, but I find it very hard to buy this team dropping a fourth consecutive game.

It’s not like the Thunder are exactly elite, either. OKC are just 4-4 on the road this year and 2-3 against the spread as road underdogs. Vegas is calling this one awfully close to the chest, but that makes the Dubs an obscene value play in a virtual pick’em. Risky or not, you just never get this type of price with the Dubs – especially on their home floor.

The risk is clear. OKC split this season series (2-2) last year and can give the Dubs a fight even when Curry is healthy and on the floor. However, you’re basically almost getting dog money for the Warriors at home.

I also challenge you to name a time when KD didn’t show up against his former squad. It happened once in the eight times he’s battled with them and he’s only lost to them twice – the worst of which wasn’t at the Oracle Arena. Durant has helped the Warriors to a stout 6-2 record against his former squad and I think he puts the drama behind him for this one and returns loyal bettors some sick betting value in the process.

My Pick