I read an interesting article discussing some of the troubles Vegas is having with the NBA this season. The basic premise of the article is that teams are launching three pointers at a record pace – and while the league has always been somewhat of a ‘make-or-miss’ league, the extreme binary nature of possessions resulting in “3” or “0” makes for a much less reliable variance.
In short, there is a randomness overtaking the NBA on many nights as the gap between “NBA record 25 three pointers made” and “Steph and Klay went 2 for 23 from distance” seems to flip with no advance notice.
The results lately have been, odd, to say the least. Last night the Grizzlies lost at home in blowout fashion to a fatigued Clippers team on the backend of a back-to-back. The Cavaliers lost to the Pistons despite LeBron’s triple-double. The Spurs lost to the Thunder BECAUSE of Russ’s triple-double and Jusef Nurkic went for 28/20, the best individual statline in the league last night, in a win over Philly. It is just the regular season, but in the last 48 hours the three overwhelmingly best teams in the NBA all lost games.
It doesn’t mean we can’t win lots of NBA wagers – and it isn’t an excuse for a tough week stretch; it’s still a positive plus-.500 season, so I am not complaining. It is however fascinating to see some of the chaos and randomness across the league in the last month.
Let’s find a winner to start the weekend off right before tomorrow’s highly anticipated matchup between the Spurs and Warriors.
Today’s NBA Pick:
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks -3
For the Pacers, the breakdown this season has been pretty simple; win at home, lose on the road. They have accomplished this feat with more consistency than any team in the NBA, creating such a massive gulf between the two it is difficult to tell if this team is actually any good.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee has been solid at home and have been playing really good basketball lately. They have reeled off four straight wins and will be looking to make it five straight against the road-anemic Pacers tonight. Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in their last six games, Indiana is 4-9 straight up.
On the season, Indiana is a disastrous 11-21 SU on the road. They aren’t much better ATS at 13-18. Milwaukee’s ATS numbers aren’t wonderful, but they are nothing to even come close to overlooking how bad the Pacers are when they leave Indianapolis. There is no playoff-positioned team even close to as poor on the road.
Milwaukee laying three is a pretty good price in this situation. I’ll take the Bucks to continue the Pacers road woes and win and cover tonight in Milwaukee.
Today’s Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -3