I’ve had a brutal run lately, I’ve dropped four in a row. It hasn’t been due to bad picks, though. The Bucks lost to the Pacers, the Warriors barely missed out on covering a spread in Sacramento and both the Lakers and Blazers couldn’t beat +5.5 point spreads in Houston.
The latter, of course, coming against a Rockets team that had been awful all year and suddenly decided to be good again.
It’s been a big bowl of whatever, but I’m still 22-16 on the year and will aim to snap the losing skid and get another win for The Sports Geek readers.
Monday offers up a fat eight-game basketball betting slate and there are plenty of traps to fall in love with. Of the lot, the Philadelphia 76ers stand out the most.
Philadelphia 76ers (+1, -110) @ San Antonio Spurs (-1, -110) Total: 224 (-110)
I will say that the Spurs have really burned me badly all year. It’s been 100% due to me backing them in favorable spots, though, so hopefully targeting them for a change works in my benefit.
The logic is most certainly there to back Philly tonight. The Spurs are 11-5 at home and the Sixers are just 6-8 on the road, but you can’t ever rely solely on home/away splits and that’s pretty much the only thing that’d sway you toward the Spurs.
This is not the San Antonio team of old. They don’t defend well, they don’t have much offense outside of DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge and even those two have struggled at times this season.
Philly has no issues on offense these days. The 76ers run at a top-10 pace, they’re putting up over 114 points per game and thanks to the presence of Joel Embiid down low and Jimmy Butler on the outside, they rank 9th in defensive efficiency.
The Spurs, meanwhile, are 22nd in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace. They do run a very efficient offense (top-5) when things are clicking, but in this matchup they’re going to need to really be on for things to go their way.
That’s problematic because the Sixers have two direct responses to their two best offensive players. Embiid can absolutely check Ridge and limit things down low, while he also can stretch San Antonio’s already suspect defense with his shooting range on the other end of the floor.
There’s obviously also Jimmy Butler, who should give DeRozan fits and mess with anyone else trying to score outside or in the mid-range game.
The star power favors the Sixers, as they also have sharpshooter J.J. Redick and Ben Simmons should face little resistance without a true stopper in San Antonio anymore.
Ultimately, the 76ers are the better team and I won’t let something as hollow as San Antonio’s home record deter me from snatching up what should be elite betting value. The Sixers at +100 to win feels like a massive steal and I’m running with it.