My hot run continued on Monday night, as the Denver Nuggets (-130) scored a nice home win over the Memphis Grizzlies. Denver just plays so well at home and that -130 price felt like a steal, so I went for it.
That got me my third win in a row and fifth in my last six tries. It also pushed my season NBA picks record to a very solid 22-12 on the year. Suffice to say, you’re doing okay if you’ve been rolling with me lately and on the year.
I’ll try to keep the wins coming on Tuesday, but keep in mind we are moving from a huge 11-game NBA betting slate to a tiny three-game schedule. Still, I see a bet I like in Houston, where the Rockets are inexplicably big 6.5-point favorites against a solid Portland Trail Blazers squad.
I don’t really want to mess with Suns vs. Spurs and Toronto could be tough to predict with Kawhi Leonard possibly resting in the first of a back-to-back set. Either join me on this Blazers vs. Rockets pick or consider sitting out a light three-game basketball betting slate.
Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5, -110) @ Houston Rockets (-6.5, -110) Total: 221 (-110)
Vegas is toying with us here. Houston has not been good at all this year (11-14 overall, 5-5 at home) and are currently reeling with three straight losses and a 3-7 mark over their last 10 games.
What’s to like about the Rockets here? They’ve been bad this season, their offense isn’t what it was a year ago and their recent form isn’t ideal. They’re at home and the Blazers are a weak 4-7 on the road. That’s the positive takeaway.
I have half the mind to just go hard at the Blazers here, as Sportsbetting.ag is assigning a thick +220 moneyline to them. Portland’s shakiness on the road this year and the presence of both James Harden and Chris Paul are both still cause for pause, though.
That being said, the Blazers at +6.5 is a massive steal and their -110 price to keep this game within six points is terrific value. After all, the Rockets rank second to last in ATS production this year (9-16) and are just 4-6 against the spread when favored at home.
I’ll admit the Blazers aren’t exactly killing it against the spread, of course. Portland are straight down the middle (13-13) ATS so far as a whole and just 2-6 ATS as road dogs. None of that is very inviting, but this is a pretty thick spread for a talented team going up against a team that continues to struggle.
The reality is it’s impossible to trust the Rockets right now. They basically need a gem from Harden to even be competitive these days and that isn’t even a sure thing.
Portland matches up well with the Rockets, too. The Blazers have a few perimeter defenders to throw at Harden, while Jusuf Nurkic is a solid answer to Clint Capela down low. The Blazers even whooped Houston in the first meeting earlier this year and may try to send a message in this one.
Even if it’s not received, I anticipate a close game and this +6.5 spread is too good to pass up. It’s a light NBA betting schedule, so if you’re not afraid of a dice roll, seriously consider the Blazers as a sweet +220 straight up bet as well.