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Rockets vs. Spurs Game Two Pick – May 3rd

 

We caught a tough L last night as the tough week continued with a game handicapped correctly, but alas falling in the losing column with a Jazz backdoor cover. The Warriors had the game in firm control throughout and played most of their starters around 30 minutes each, but allowed a few meaningless baskets in the final minute to give away a solid easy cover.

Such are the breaks sometimes, but it could have been worse. I feel for any of you who correctly handicapped the Washington vs. Boston game, only to have a dreadful overtime take away your winning wager. That one would have also stung!

It can be tricky in the postseason where there are only two games (or one) to choose from most nights and the lines, to this point, have been pretty close to spot-on. With one exception, of course… and that brings us to tonight’s Game Two in San Antonio…

Today’s NBA Pick:

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs -5.5

This is the ultimate “pants’d game.” No matter which way you go on this game, you have a chance to be ridiculously mocked for your ignorance. Back the Spurs and “are you BLIND?!? Did you not WATCH Game One??” Back the Rockets, and “you foolish prisoner of the moment. Larger sample size, idiot!) Fortunately for most of you, you can bear your shame in silence. Mine gets to be aired for, oh, thousands and thousands of people… That said, let’s walk the tightrope with the sensible and logical (though undoubtedly unpopular and potentially embarrassing pick).

It is EASY to pile on the Spurs after Game One. They looked TERRIBLE. They looked OLD. LaMarcus Aldridge complied the single worst game plus/minus in the Coach Popovich playoff era. It was BAD BAD BAD. But like Vegas, I find it wise not to overreact. The Spurs, despite their terrible showing are not just favored tonight, but favored convincingly. Vegas knows that often a bad game is just that, a really bad game. The larger sample size, especially head-to-head, actually very much favors the Spurs.

San Antonio won all three regular season matchups and had a vastly better regular season record, even with a ton of games where they didn’t even TRY to win. This line opened at -7, and the public could WAIT to throw dirt on the less-popular and interesting Spurs coffins. I’ll take the extra two-point cushion and bank on a MASSIVE bounce-back spirited effort from the Spurs. Houston shot the ball exceptionally well and the game snowballed. They could just as easily throw up icicles tonight; such if the life when you live so solely by the three-ball.

The Spurs have too much pride to get housed at home again. I like them to bounce back, win and cover.

Today’s NBA Pick: SAN ANTIONIO SPURS -5

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