The last time I handed out an NBA pick the Golden State Warriors couldn’t deliver a sweet -110 price at home. They lost easily to the Thunder, only to follow that up with one of their biggest wins of the year. I ate the loss, dropping my NBA picks record to 17-7 on the year.
My run has been strong overall, but the loss kept me from getting a new winning streak going. I’m in a mild 1-2 rut over my last three picks, so the aim will be to get hot again. I think bettors can get going in the right direction if they take a look at a showdown between the Houston Rockets and the Washington Wizards
Houston comes in as very mild -2.5 road favorites, so I’m hopping all over their -115 spread price. Let’s find out why:
Houston Rockets (-2.5, -115) @ Washington Wizards (+2.5, -105) Total: 224 (-110)
A secondary bet here is the Over, as the Wizards push the pace a bit and are terrible defensively. The latter won’t change, as star center Dwight Howard is dealing with a lingering back issue as well as some off the court stuff.
Washington did just score a big win over the Pelicans and beat the Clippers a few games prior, but I don’t trust them in this spot. Houston, meanwhile, has dropped two straight and could use a “get right” game. That should have been their last contest against the lowly Cavs, but Chris Paul being rested hurt them on both ends of the court in that one.
CP3 should be back tonight and if he is, I think this -2.5 line is one the Rockets should cover. This game projects as a shootout, but Houston is the better team right now and the Wizards (5-5) aren’t even that good at home. The ATS data isn’t useful from either side of this one, so you just need to consider the talent and how these teams matchup.
A healthy an active Chris Paul gives John Wall a tough draw at both ends of the floor, while Howard likely being out again gives way to a very friendly matchup for Rockets big man, Clint Capela.
The season series also leans toward Houston. The two sides split their two meetings (1-1) a year ago, but the Rockets have claimed three of the last four meetings. Both teams are struggling, but the Rockets are a little more cohesive and can slow things down and defend a little better. If they can dictate the pace of this game and CP3 is back in the lineup, they stand out as one of the better value plays on the board tonight.
I’d actually still be very interested in the Rockets if Paul does not suit up in this one, as I’d imagine Vegas would adjust the lines and you could possibly get dog money with the Rockets here. My guess with the way this line opens up, though, is CP3 is going to hit the floor.