I trusted in the Philadelphia 76ers once again on Monday night and for the second time this year they made me look smart. I knew an 11-point spread wasn’t an easy thing to ask for, but the Sixers have been very good at home, pretty great ATS and were hosting a bad Hawks team.
Atlanta kept the game tied up going into the break to give me a good sweat, but talent and home court edge ultimately handed Philly the easy home win I expected them to get. That pushed my season NBA picks mark to 7-2 on the year and if you’ve been rolling with me to this point, you’re undeniably in the green.
I’ll admit I am not a huge fan of this NBA betting slate. Not a lot stands out to me, but my favorite game is in Orlando between the Magic and Sacramento Kings.
The Magic are again not great this year. They’re weak at the point guard position, they don’t defend particularly well and they play really slow. At 1-2, they’re not even locks to get the job done at home (17-24 at the Amway Center a year ago).
I love the Kings in most regards tonight. They play really fast (3rd in pace), they put up a lot of points and they’re on fire at the moment with three straight wins. Orlando can be annoyingly decent at times and the no-defense Kings give them a shot, but I am riding the Kings’ wave. The only question is what bet is the best to attack:
Sacramento Kings (+5, -107) @ Orlando Magic (-5, -113) Total: 220.5 (-115)
The first thing here is I almost never trust the Magic. They have some talent and when they’re clicking they can score the ball, but they are none of the reliable. The fact that they’re at home could sway you, but I can’t bet on the Magic at -205. Seriously, -205!.
I know the Kings have historically been very bad, but they’re better this year. De’Aaron Fox is a legit young point guard, Buddy Hield is hot offensively, Marvin Bagley gives them solid rookie minutes at the four and Willie Cauley-Stein is turning into a strong presence down low.
Sacramento has to push the pace and out-score anyone they face due to their bad defense, but I definitely think they’re capable of doing that against the Magic.
Orlando hasn’t exactly been a team worth confiding in against the spread (37-43-2 last year) and it’s even worse when Vegas actually favors them (5-10 as the favorite last season).
The only hiccup at all here is the fact that De’Aaron Fox is questionable. Apparently he strained his back in his last game and may not play. Due to that, I don’t mind waiting a bit if you do want to bet on this game, either so you can see if Fox plans on planning and/or if the lines are going to move.
I probably need Fox active to actually stand by this wager, but I love the value associated with the top NBA betting sites acting like he might not be in action. I really don’t have a problem with just going for it without knowing if Fox will start, either.
Sacramento at +175 is a really solid price, but just like I don’t trust the Magic, I can understand if you can’t really bring yourself to go with Sacramento as a straight-up winner.
I get the hesitancy there, so attacking this spread might be the best play. If Fox is in, the Kings to just keep it within five points (-107) is going to feel like a steal. If he’s out, at least you can hope the Kings keep it close and still beat the spread.
The Kings have been very good (5-2) against the spread so far this year and they honestly weren’t that bad (33-3-2) as underdogs last year. They’ve also been the underdog in every game so far this year, so you can guess what their ATS mark as underdogs has been.
There is some risk here, but that’s the case throughout tonight’s basketball betting slate. I am down for the Kings at +175 (best play is +180 at GTbets), but the best play is Sacramento against the spread tonight.