I’m back after taking the day off on Tuesday. I scored yet another win on Monday, as the Houston Rockets were fun +100 underdogs in Indy and I couldn’t pass it up. James Harden and company scored me my third win in a row and lifted my season NBA picks record to a stout 11-3.
Let’s keep the good times going into Wednesday’s full 10-game NBA betting slate. There are a lot of games to consider, but my favorite bet resides in South Beach, where the 4-5 Miami Heat host the 6-3 San Antonio Spurs.
Miami is within striking distance for first place in the Southeast Division and are 2-2 on their home floor this year. The Spurs, meanwhile, got housed at home by the Magic in their last game but are a solid 2-1 away from home.
The Spurs are the better team on paper and have more star power. They don’t really have a traditional point guard right now and will also be down both Rudy Gay and Pau Gasol, but the injury situation could be a wash with Miami possibly playing without star center Hassan Whiteside as well.
At first glance, I note the value with Miami as a -125 home favorite, but the Spurs feel like a steal at +105. Let’s break down why that might be one of the better plays of this slate:
San Antonio Spurs (+2, -112) @ Miami Heat (-2 -108) Total: 217.5 (-110)
I don’t like to bet against Gregg Popovich. That’s the first thing to consider here. The Spurs don’t have Kawhi Leonard anymore, but DeMar DeRozan has been awesome as his replacement and LaMarcus Aldridge is a great second scoring option. Not having Gay hurts the offense a bit, but not so much it’d sway my bet.
The Spurs are mostly underdogs because they’re on the road. I don’t think you can let that sway you, either.
The ATS data doesn’t help us much. Miami is 4-5 against the spread and the Spurs are 5-4. The Heat are just 2-2 as the home favorite ATS this year and San Antonio is 1-1 as the road dog. A year ago Miami went 26-17 on their home floor and the Spurs were a ghastly 14-30 on the road. That obviously leans you toward the Heat, but this is a new season and Miami was just 13-15-3 at covering the spread when favored at home last season.
The slight edge goes to Miami simply because they’re playing at home tonight, but in what appears to basically be a pick’em, I have to side with the Spurs.
Not only does San Antonio get the coaching edge here, but they have more offensive upside. Miami plays faster (who doesn’t?), but San Antonio is the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA. The Spurs aren’t who they once were defensively, but their numbers this year are largely impacted by a crazy battle with the fast-paced Lakers.
San Antonio is still capable defensively and they match up pretty well with Miami. The 217.5 Total suggests this will not be a defensive battle like we’ve been accustomed to seeing out of these two teams in the past. Still, the Spurs have their best two players at their disposal and they run the team concept as good as anyone on offense. They’ve also won nine straight in this series and will be looking to bounce back after a bad home loss.
Ultimately, I like the value here too much. The Spurs at +105 at Sportsbetting.ag feels like a steal and I’m rolling with it tonight.