The Golden State Warriors treated me well on Monday night, as they covered their -10 spread in an easy blowout win in Atlanta. That handed me my second win in a row and pushed my season NBA picks record to a strong 19-11.
Tonight I’ll be eyeing my 20th win and even though bettors only have five NBA games to choose from, I think there’s some fantastic value to attack. Normally I’d tell you to stay away if there wasn’t anything you were in love with, but Andruw is all over a Blazers vs. Mavericks pick and there is arguably a great betting slant in every single game on this slate.
For me, the best value resides in Utah, where the San Antonio Spurs visit the Jazz.
The Spurs have gotten housed on the road twice in the past week, but I still think they’re much better than they’ve shown and a +7 point spread feels a tad disrespectful.
Let’s break down why betting on the Spurs to beat this spread might be the top play of the night:
San Antonio Spurs (+7, -109) @ Utah Jazz (-7, -111) Total: 214 (-110)
I wouldn’t be shocked if Utah won this game and the nature of Spurs games favors the Under. But you’re not betting on the Jazz at a gross -300 price and Utah has played a tad faster than in year’s past.
Because of that, I’m either aiming high with San Antonio as a straight up road dog at a criminal +250 or I’m targeting a spread I personally feel is much too thick.
The big issue here is the Jazz haven’t been very good this year.
Usually an elite defensive team, the Jazz are giving up over 108 points per game in 2018 and rank just 13th in defensive efficiency. They’re not awful in this department, but they’re also not exactly elite.
Defense hasn’t been something Utah can consistently hang their hat on, so they’ve suffered with an identity crisis at times. That’s bred inconsistency, while 2017-18 rookie sensation Donovan Mitchell hasn’t been quite as dominant in year two.
Utah’s offense has also suffered for it and they enter the night ranking 25th in the league in offensive efficiency.
That won’t matter so much against a Spurs team that is atrocious defensively this year, but both team’s tend to play fairly slow and it could contribute both to erratic offense and the Under in this one.
I’m just struggling to find where Utah has a clear edge.
They’re only 2-6 on their home floor and a disappointing 2-5 against the spread when favored at home. The Spurs have not been good at getting wins on the road, but they’ve at least been respectable (4-4) ATS on the road.
The recent blowouts the Spurs have suffered are troubling, to be sure, but they’ve bounced back and now are in a spot where they’ve at worst routinely kept the games close.
To be specific, San Antonio stole an OT thriller the last time these two sides faced off and there has been a winner by 7+ points in this series just twice in the last six meetings.
Both teams will come to play tonight. The general pace suggests the Under, while betting on the Jazz straight up is a waste of money. I really like the Spurs as an elite value underdog bet, but their spread is the way to go tonight.