Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Pick – Game 6

The NBA is set up with another strong slate of basketball on May 12. Two potential elimination games are up on the board throughout Thursday night. One of these games will be between the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks. These two teams have met in a tight series so far and will look for a big win in this one. This game will tip off at around 9:30 PM Eastern time on ESPN.

Phoenix has earned a record of 7-4 throughout this postseason after grabbing the top spot in the Western Conference. The Suns knocked off the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round and will look to do the same in the second rounds. Phoenix is coming off another big win at home in Game 5 and will look to finish the series off on the road.

The Mavericks have put up a record of 6-5 so far these playoffs after earning the fourth seed in the Western Conference. Dallas eliminated the Utah Jazz in the first round in six games. The Mavericks have played well at home in this series and will look to keep it going in Game 6. Dallas will look to set the tone early as they look to fight off elimination.

These two teams have gone back and forth in this series with the home team winning all five games so far. Dallas will look to keep this trend up as they try to force a Game 7 back in Phoenix. The Suns will look to finish this series strong with a win on the road. If either team can come out fast, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Phoenix Suns -2 (-110) -130 Over 212 ½ (-105)
Dallas Mavericks +2 (-110) +110 Under 212 ½ (-115)


Team Data Phoenix Suns Dallas Mavericks
Playoff Record 7-4 6-5
Away/ Home Playoff Record 2-3 4-1
Playoff PPG 111.2 104.1
Playoff PPG Away/ Home 105.4 103.8
Playoff PAPG 106.9 104.5
Playoff PAPG Away/ Home 110.4 95.0

Betting Trends

Phoenix Suns

  • 51-41 ATS this season
  • 44-36 ATS as a favorite
  • 27-18 ATS in road games
  • 16-13 ATS against Southwest division
  • 7-4 ATS in Playoffs
  • 2-4 ATS when leading in series
  • 0-7 ATS after allowing 90 points or less
  • 19-21 ATS after a win by 10 or more points
  • 23-16 ATS against team with a winning record

Dallas Mavericks

  • 52-39 ATS this season
  • 20-20 ATS as an underdog
  • 26-18 ATS in home games
  • 12-11 ATS against Pacific division
  • 7-4 ATS in Playoffs
  • 3-1 ATS when trailing in series
  • 11-4 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more
  • 18-4 ATS after scoring 100 points or less
  • 31-18 ATS against team with a winning record

These two teams have met in a tight five games series so far. Devin Booker had 23 points and 28 points in Game’s 1 and 2 as Phoenix won 121-114 and 129-109. Luka Doncic dropped 26 points in the third and fourth game as the Mavericks bounced back with a 103-94 and 111-101 win. Booker scored 28 points in Game 5, while Deandre Ayton added 20 points as the Suns grabbed a 110-80 win to take back the lead.

Field Goal Shooting

The Suns have been strong shooting the ball in the playoffs. Phoenix has made 51.7 percent of their shots from the field, which is 1st in the field of 8. The Suns have been shooting 36.5 percent from deep, which is 5th in the postseason. Phoenix has sunk 82.6 percent of their shots from the free throw line, which is 3rd in the playoffs.

Dallas have been solid shooting the ball in the postseason. The Mavericks have shot 44.3 percent from the field, which is 7th in the remaining field. Dallas has made 37.4 percent of their shots from behind the arc, which is 3rd in the playoffs. The Mavericks have drained 77.2 percent of their shots from the charity stripe, which is 5th in the postseason.

Phoenix has been the better team shooting the ball and are coming off a great defensive game. The Suns held the Mavericks to 80 points in Game 5 and will look to build on that performance. Dallas will look to put up a strong defensive game as they look to bounce back at home. If either team can shoot well early, it could be enough for the win.

Top Performers

Devin Booker has been the leader for Phoenix in the postseason. Booker has averaged 25.4 points per game. Deandre Ayton is averaging 18.8 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Chris Paul has averaged 18.6 points and 9.1 assists per game. Mikal Bridges is averaging 14.5 points per game. Cameron Johnson has averaged 11.2 points to round out the lineup.

Luka Doncic has been great for the Mavericks throughout the playoffs. Doncic is averaging 30.9 points, 10 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. Jalen Brunson has averaged 23.3 points per game. Dorian Finney-Smith is averaging 12.9 points, while Spencer Dinwiddie has averaged 11.5 points per game. Maxi Kleber rounds out the lineup, averaging 10.8 points per game.

These two teams have been led by their stars throughout this postseason. Dallas has seen a big step up in the playoffs from Jalen Brunson and will look for him to continue to shoulder part of the load. The Suns have a really deep team and will look to use it to their advantage. If either team can have some players step up early, it could be enough for the win.

Pick Overview

These two teams have met in a tight series so far, but I think that the Suns will finish it off on Thursday night. Phoenix has been the better team this season and I think they will find a way to win on the road. The Suns have been better shooting the ball and if they can remain strong on defense, I think they can book a spot in the Western Conference Finals.

Bovada has Phoenix listed as a -2 against the spread in this one. This gives a slight edge to the Suns on the road in this one. Phoenix has struggled on the road against Dallas, but I think they are due for a road win. The Suns have a deep lineup and I think it will be too much for the Mavericks in this one. As slight favorites, I like the value on Phoenix to cover.

The Bet
Phoenix Suns -2
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.