We notched a third straight winner last night, cashing in an easy winner on the Cavaliers misery in San Antonio. It’s easy to dismiss things are “just the regular season” and “no big deal” but since the Cavaliers seem to finally be recognizing their sudden mortality, perhaps it is wise we do as well.
The Celtics are now leading the Eastern Conference and most statistical modelling has them emerging as the solid favorite to hold that position. Let that register for a second; the Celtics are the top seed in the East. Wait. What? Does that mean the Celtics are legitimate Finals contenders? As fun as the story is, as wonderful as Isaiah Thomas has been, as remarkable as Brad Stevens has been on the bench, as nicely as their “starless” collection of very good pieces – I just CAN’T SEE it yet. In fact, Vegas has a similar skepticism. The Cavaliers are still -300 on Bovada to win the East. The Celtics are +500.
Just something to keep in mind for perspective on the Cavaliers recent struggles…
Luckily, no recent struggles for us. Let’s see if we can grab a fourth straight winner tonight.
Today’s NBA Pick:
Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers -5
We’ve gone to this well a few times, well more than a few times this season, and it isn’t 100% flawless, but the math is so compelling, it is worth exploring once again. The Pacers are really, really good at home. They are 26-11 SU in Banker’s Life Arena. The Timberpups are 10-25 SU on the road, which is really, really BAD. It is such a huge discrepancy that laying five points feels relatively harmless.
The Pacers have won six of their last seven games at home straight up and are 5-2 ATS. Minnesota had a nice little run a few weeks ago but has crashed back to Earth, losing five straight games and failing to cover in all of them.
Minnesota has lost three straight to the Pacers by an average of over eight points a contest and now have to try to beat a Pacer team very much in the playoff jockeying in their home arena. The Pacers are 13-11 ATS as a home favorite, and Minny is 10-15 ATS on the road.
But at the end of the day, this one is pretty simple. One of the best home teams hosting one of the league’s worst road teams. I don’t need too much more to stake my three game winning streak upon.
Today’s Pick: INDIANA PACERS -5