The Cleveland Cavaliers have come up short in three straight games to start the 2018 NBA Finals. I felt they could give it a go in game one and they absolutely did, ultimately beating a thick +12-point spread and almost shocking the Golden State Warriors at the Oracle Arena.
After that brutal loss, I still felt +11.5 points was too much and they just failed to deliver in game two. Facing a must-win situation at home in game three, I flat out backed the Cavs to win at a nice +150 price.
Trusting in Cleveland hasn’t led to much money this year, has it?
That’s played a hand in my NBA playoff picks record sliding to 15-14-1.
While rolling with the Cavs has been a dicey proposition for much of the year, chalk me up as one of those guys that can’t seem to confidently bet against LeBron James. He’s been flat out insane throughout these playoffs and even with his Cavs on the brink of elimination tonight, I’m still torn.
Are the Cavs destined to wilt at home and get swept, or do they have enough fight in them to at least make the Dubs win the title back in California? That’s the main thing bettors need to decide as the NBA Finals touch down at Quicken Loans Arena for a second time in game four tonight:
Golden State Warriors (-5, -105) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (+5, -115) Total: 215 (-115/-105)
I won’t waste a whole lot of time here, as I’ve been going over each game of this series and I’d hate to sound like a broken record. The main takeaway here is the Cavs are in a pretty brutal hole, but they’ve been in every single game thus far and have a chance to prolong this thing on their home floor.
Cleveland has played their best ball all season at Quicken Loans Arena and Golden State has proven to be quite complacent in the past. This is the perfect spot for Vegas to trap us with a Dubs loss and this fairly tight spread mirrors the situation we found ourselves in ahead of game three.
It is crazy how this series could be so different had game one bounced Cleveland’s way, while the Cavs were down by just three points with under a minute to go in game three as well.
Cleveland has done a terrific job of shooting themselves in the foot, but this is an elimination game and LeBron James is on the side where Vegas is betting against. The Cavs have been very good (17-11) when Vegas bets against them this year and while that really hasn’t popped up much in this series, I can’t go into the summer defying King James.
Sure, the Dubs could win and sweep this series, but that is not like a LeBron James-led team. Instead, I think it’s far more likely James annoyingly beasts out and keeps this thing alive so the Warriors can close things out in game five at home.
Even if that’s not the case, the Cavs get five points here and I think they have a decent shot at beating the spread. Look for a close game where the Cavs could win, but I’ll play it on the safer side and bet they just keep it close enough to get you some cash back.