Warriors vs. Jazz NBA Pick – April 10th

We scored a nice win last night, as the New Orleans Pelicans made good on their -8.5 line and beat the Los Angeles Clippers by 13. It was a nice road win and also doubled up as a playoff-clinching victory.

I hopped on the -8.5 point spread just as the Clippers announced two of their top guards would sit Monday’s contest out and I urged our loyal readers to do the same. Hopefully you followed suit, but even if you acted on a beefed up spread, odds are you still came away with a win with the Pels winning 113-100.

It’s on to the next one on Tuesday night, as the NBA delivers six more games for bettors to tackle before wrapping up the 2017-18 NBA regular season on Wednesday.

The pickings are admittedly slim, as this slate is full of teams that have already clinched a playoff spot or literally do not want to win games. One of the toughest games to peg goes down in Dallas, where the Suns take on the Mavs. Phoenix is locked into the worst record in the league, though, so all bets are off for this one.

Of this six-game schedule, the game I want to target is a battle in Utah between the Jazz and the Golden State Warriors. Several NBA betting sites offer spreads of +7 or +7.5 for Golden State, but Bovada (-110) looks like the one handing out the most value. Let’s see if that’s a betting angle you’ll want to jump on tonight:

Golden State Warriors (+7.5, -110) @ Utah Jazz (-7.5, -110) Total: 212 (-105/-115)

The Jazz can still play for the #3 seed in the Western Conference, but with a playoff spot locked up, I still think there is some risk for complacency here. If not that, bettors need to be concerned with this gaudy -7.5 spread against a Warriors team that can still crush anyone.

It’s true Golden State has not been the same sans Stephen Curry (5-5 over their last 10 games), but Steve Kerr called them out for their defense recently and they could be looking to make a statement to cap off the year as they get ready for postseason play.

The Dubs haven’t had anything to play for in some time, as they locked up the #2 seed for the playoffs over a week ago. That’s partially to blame for their lack of urgency on the defensive end, but I think there’s a strong argument for them wanting to show up in this one.

Not only would a win here even the season series, but the Dubs could once again show that they are one of the most efficient defensive units in the NBA and also cap the regular season on a high note.

Golden State dominated the Jazz in the first meeting this year, while Utah returned the favor with a crushing win in the second meeting. I’m not sure bettors can read too much into a second easy win by Utah on March 25th, however, as the Dubs were down four of their five starters.

This is a completely different matchup and whether you like the Jazz or not, I find it hard to believe anyone is feeling confident about them as a big -7.5 favorite.

Utah has been fine (42-37-1) against the spread on the year, but they’ve been quite average ATS (22-23) when listed as the favorite. For some reason that record dips even more (13-17) when Vegas backs them on their home floor.

The Dubs have struggled ATS this year, mainly due to some ungodly spreads in their favor. Their 1-4 record as underdogs ATS is troubling, but it’s worth noting those situations usually dealt with them not having their roster at full strength.

Curry is still sidelined with a knee sprain, but the Dubs should otherwise have everyone on hand to try to close out the year on a high note.

Utah could easily win this game. They’re very tough at home (27-13) and they still have something to play for. However, nobody is going to say they’re the better team and a motivated Dubs squad isn’t one I want to bet against. Truly, the Dubs as staggering +255 underdogs is about as tempting as any straight up underdog has been all year.

I don’t mind aiming high with that bet at all, but the NBA betting game is about scoring wins and playing the numbers. The Dubs at +7.5 feels criminal. Win or lose, I certainly expect them to keep this one close and beat this spread.

The Pick: Golden State Warriors ATS +7.5 (-110)


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