The hot run with my NBA picks continued on Tuesday night, as the Detroit Pistons outlasted the Philadelphia Sixers to push me to a blistering 5-1 on the young season. It was not easy to get there, as Detroit blew an 8-point lead late in this one and needed overtime (plus 50 points from Blake Griffin!) to steal the win.
Philly was on the road without Ben Simmons and the Pistons originally offered sweet value as +110 home underdogs, though, so I had to pounce. I understand if you were late to that one (this is another reason why hopping on games after news breaks can be crucial), but hopefully you still rolled with us and took the Pistons to win.
I haven’t handed out many big underdogs yet this year, but it’s actually been due to a lack of viable options. I’m sticking to the Eastern Conference, so I’m not going to force underdogs unless I feel passionate about them. Detroit was a nice price last night, though, so let’s see what’s looking good for Wednesday’s big 11-game NBA betting slate.
I’m not picking this game, but before I get going here I’d like to point out that the Sixers are +220 straight up road dogs in Milwaukee tonight. They could be tired and potentially could be without Ben Simmons (back) and/or Joel Embiid (rest?), but dang, that’s a sweet line.
Instead, I’ll look over to a battle at the Oracle Arena, where the defending champion Golden State Warriors play host to the Washington Wizards.
There is a small argument for aiming high with Washington here (+405 straight up road underdog), but I absolutely love them against a +9.5 point spread at Sportsbetting.ag. Let’s break this one down a bit further to see why that’s my favorite bet in the east tonight:
Washington Wizards (+9.5, -107) @ Golden State Warriors (-9.5, -113) Total: 235 (-110)
This is my favorite game just because it seems Vegas overlooks the fact that the Warriors don’t always live up to their godly status. Denver already proved this year that they’re not invincible and the Dubs routinely play down to their competition. It takes one look at last year’s weak 45-57-1 ATS record to show that.
Golden State was even worse when favored a year ago (43-50-1) and for some reason they weren’t any better (21-28-1) when favored at home. They usually win at home (and in general) but Golden State can get complacent and won’t always house teams like they’re probably capable of doing.
It understandably gets more difficult because every team is hoping to get a piece of that “beat the champs” pie and tonight the Wiz happen to be a pretty tough opponent. The Wizards have had some tough luck to start the year, but their point differential is just -1.3. They aren’t defending well, but they’re able to run and score with anyone.
That includes the Dubs, who they actually beat two years ago and kept the game within tonight’s spread both times last season.
I actually love the fact that Dwight Howard isn’t active for this game, as Washington’s small ball lineup actually matches up with the Dubs quite well. Washington has the shooting, perimeter bodies and defensive upside to give the Warriors trouble and I highly doubt they’re going to feel great about the idea of losing again to drop to 1-3.
This is not a 1-3 team. They’re immensely talented, they’ve given the Warriors fights in the past and I expect them to do so again tonight. I think shooting for the win is on the table, but it might be a tad too ambitious. Instead, I’m backing the Wiz to keep this competitive and beat a pretty gaudy +9.5 point spread.