Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators Pick – NCAAF Week 3

The Alabama Crimson Tide are at The Swamp in Gainesville for an important early season matchup versus the Florida Gators. This will be the first real road test for Bryce Young and the Crimson Tide. Young opened the season against the Miami Hurricanes on the road, though that was a neutral site game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Alabama had no problems travelling away from Tuscaloosa in that assignment. They pulled away from Miami early. The Crimson Tide finished with a 44-13 win behind an impressive performance from Young. He passed for 344 yards and 4 touchdowns on 27 of 38 passing. His numbers were impressive, but the way he moved around in the pocket had to be the most impressive aspect.

When the pocket was breaking down and Young had to adjust, he stepped up and looked downfield like a four-year veteran. The guy looks cool, calm, and collected for Alabama. If you remember watching Tua play in college, you know what you’re going to get from Young as far as confidence and not being too bothered by traffic is concerned.

The Crimson Tide followed up with a 48-14 win over Mercer last Saturday. Alabama looked fine, could have been better, but they were certainly looking ahead to Florida and the Gators. If the Crimson Tide wanted to blow Mercer out by 60 points, they very easily could have done that. Alabama has bigger things to worry about than Mercer, though.

Florida is fresh off a 42-20 win against South Florida on Saturday. In Week 1 they cleared Florida Atlantic by a score of 35-14. In both instances, the Gators were unable to cover the spread. Florida didn’t look at their best in either game. In their win over USF, the Bulls were moving the ball on their secondary.

South Florida has one of the worst offenses in the FBS and at times were putting together some drives. Not a good look for the Gators, a team that was lost defensively especially in the secondary last year. Florida needs a healthy Anthony Richardson to win this game straight up. Emory Jones likely isn’t enough. Head below for our free Alabama vs. Florida pick on September 18, 2021.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Alabama -14.5 (-105) -660 Over 60 (-110)
Florida +14.5 (-110) +510 Under 60 (-110)
Team Data Alabama Florida
Overall Record 2-0 2-0
ATS Record 1-1-0 0-2-0
Away/Home Record 0-0-0 1-0-0
ATS Away/Home 0-0-0 0-1-0
Points Per Game 46 36
Points Against Per Game 13.5 17
Passing Yards Per Game 310 228
Rushing Yards Per Game 152.5 381.5

Alabama vs. Florida Prediction:

Florida leads the nation in rushing yards per game with 381.5 per game. They might be able to run on Alabama to an extent, but the statistic is awfully deceptive. FAU isn’t on the same level as they were when Lane Kiffin was the head coach, and South Florida has one of the most beatable defenses in the country.

Quarterback Anthony Richardson looked great against South Florida with 115 yards and a touchdown on 28.8 yards per carry. Richardson may or may not play in this game, but Dan Mullen would be dumb one way or another to reveal his game status. He was dealing with a hamstring injury after a long touchdown run versus South Florida.

There appears to be optimism that Richardson is going to play, though. We know the problems that Alabama has had over the past several years with mobile quarterbacks. If you haven’t watched Richardson play before, he does give off Cam Newton vibes. The freshman is going to do serious damage in the SEC when he gets some time in the offense. His arrival to college football for people that don’t know him yet could be on Saturday.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators Betting Trends:


  • 8-1 ATS in their previous nine games after a ATS loss
  • 9-3 ATS in their previous 12 games
  • 7-1 ATS in their previous eight SEC games
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games versus Florida
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five games on the road
  • 11-0 overall in their previous 11 games versus the SEC


  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games
  • 14-4 overall in their previous 18 games
  • 13-3 overall in their previous 16 games versus the SEC
  • OVER is 5-0 in their previous five games versus Alabama
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games

Florida must make some plays early in this one to keep the crowd in the game. If Alabama hits a couple of big plays early, the crowd at The Swamp will quickly look a bit concerned and quiet down.

Alabama can do that as a team to any opponent in the country. Young might be inexperienced, but he’s proven in a limited role last season, and against Miami, that he is capable of handling the Crimson Tide offense.

DeVonta Smith might be gone for Alabama, but John Metchie III appears like the next star at receiver for the Crimson Tide. The Canadian could have been the go-to target for Mac Jones if Smith wasn’t on the roster last year.

In more of a pivotal role in 2021, watch his draft stock continue to go up this season. Metchie started off hot against Miami this season, as he had 76 yards and a score on 6 receptions. His early catch and scamper to the end zone versus the Hurricanes was an early backbreaker to Miami.

Florida’s secondary was an unmitigated disaster last year against good offenses. They gave up 257.5 passing yards per game overall against all teams, which ranked near the back of the FBS. Alabama throttled Florida for 52 points in a 52-46 win in the SEC Championship.

Jones passed for 418 yards with 5 touchdowns and 1 interception on 33 of 43 passing. He’s in the NFL with the Patriots, but I like the poise shown by Young in the Alabama offense. And if Florida’s busted assignments against a bad USF offense is any indication, the Crimson Tide offense is going to have fun on Saturday.

I foresee a high-scoring game with the OVER likely coming in. The opening number was much too low in my opinion, which I was able to get in on at 57.5. It’s still too low at 60 points. A final score of 42-28 is how I see this one playing out at The Swamp.


Alabama vs. Florida Pick