Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick – NCAAF Week 7

The Alabama Crimson Tide head to Starkville looking for a better performance following a loss in College Station at Texas A&M this past weekend. Alabama was bounced out of the top-4 after the 41-38 loss. It was a sloppy performance from Alabama, especially the defense that was clearly not prepared.

Texas A&M had been struggling offensively, but snapped into shape with 41 points last weekend. They won on a last-second field after setting up a chip shot for Seth Small.

The Bama defense gave up 285 yards and 3 touchdowns to Zach Calzada. He was inconsistent going into that game, but found the right stroke versus the Crimson Tide.

Speaking of consistency problems, the Alabama defense has been playing inconsistently this season. They don’t have the offensive talent they had last season. As good as Alabama is at reloading with talent, it’s not easy to replace DeVonta Smith and Najee Harris in one year.

Having said that, there is enough talent to make it work if their defense would show up. Nick Saban doesn’t expect to lose games when his offense scores 38 points. That can’t happen with Alabama football. They’ve shown to be good this season, though, so again consistency is their problem.

The Crimson Tide defense looked great in a 42-21 win over Ole Miss two weeks back. Their defense appeared to have it all figured out against one of the best offenses in the country. All of that momentum for the defense was squashed in College Station.

With a week for Saban to address what went wrong, Mike Leach must be expecting a better effort from the Alabama defense. Leach doesn’t have his complete offense in place to run his air raid yet.

However, when and if he does, the Bulldogs could be a good team if their defense holds. The Mississippi State defense has been sharp, which they were able to do against Texas A&M two weeks back. The Bulldogs edged out the Aggies in College Station, 26-22.

Look ahead to Alabama for Texas A&M? Sure, though it’s the same Aggie team that beat the Crimson Tide. It should be a good one in Starkville. Head below for our free Alabama vs. Mississippi State pick on October 16, 2021.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Alabama Crimson Tide -17 (-115) -900 Over 58.5 (-104)
Mississippi State Bulldogs +17 (-105) +640 Under 58.5 (-116)
Team Data Alabama Crimson Tide Mississippi State Bulldogs
Overall Record 5-1 3-2
ATS Record 3-3-0 2-3-0
Away/Home Record 1-1 2-1
ATS Away/Home 0-2-0 1-2-0
Points Per Game 44.3 27.8
Points Against Per Game 22 25
Passing Yards Per Game 310.8 372.4
Rushing Yards Per Game 161.7 130

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction:

I’m confident in the Alabama defense bouncing back after a weak performance against Texas A&M last week. Mississippi State doesn’t have a typical high-powered Mike Leach offense.

They’re mediocre, just kind of like Texas A&M has been this season. I think Alabama learned their lesson about what happens if you take any offense lightly.

The Bulldogs have scored 27.8 points per game, and have consistently scored in that range in their last four games. During that stretch, Mississippi State has scored 24, 29, 25, and 26 points.

Their only games with more than 30 points this season were against Missouri, 51-32, and Louisiana Tech, 35-34. All of the other defenses they’ve played have been up to the challenge.

After the disaster in College Station for the Crimson Tide, expect them to come out with a better effort. Overall this season, Alabama have allowed 300.8 yards and 22 points per game. Nothing wrong with either, but not the lockdown defense you’re going to get from Georgia.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Trends:


  • 11-5 ATS in their previous 16 games
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus Mississippi State
  • 10-0 overall in their previous ten games versus Mississippi State
  • 8-3 ATS in their previous 11 games versus the SEC
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus the SEC West
  • 9-2 ATS in their previous 11 games after failing to cover the spread

Mississippi State

  • 0-6 overall in their previous six games versus Alabama in Starkville
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games versus the SEC West
  • 1-7 ATS in their previous eight games in October
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games after a bye week
  • 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 games after covering the spread

Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers has passed for 14 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 75.7% completions. Leach has his quarterback, as the sophomore has shown much improvement after an up and down freshman campaign.

Now the rest of the offense has to come together at Mississippi State. If Leach can find the next Michael Crabtree, then he’ll be closer to the Texas Tech air raid. The Bulldogs have recorded 428.6 yards per game for 51st in the FBS.

Near last in rushing yards with 56.2, but that’s expected in the air raid. Their passing-game ranks fifth in the nation with 372.4 yards per contest through the air. Alabama is 34th with 195 passing yards allowed per game.

Off a turbulent performance, expect to see the Crimson Tide defense flying around. Meanwhile, Bryce Young should be able to improve on his 20 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Young has passed for 1,734 yards and completed 69.4% of his passes.

The Crimson Tide have netted 44.3 points and 472.5 yards per game this season. There is an extra gear missing from the 2020 team, but Young and Alabama can still clearly move the ball. This looks like a repeat of the Ole Miss game, with Alabama winning a 41-20 or 44-17 game to cover.


Alabama vs. Mississippi State Pick