The top game in the PAC-12 this Saturday (10:15pm ET) features the 18th ranked Arizona St. Sun Devils (5-1) traveling to Eugene, OR to take on the 9th ranked Oregon Ducks (4-1). ASU has won three straight games since their 17-14 loss at Illinois on September 17, including a 35-14 win at Utah last week in which they covered the 3.5 point line. Oregon is riding a four game winning streak after their season-opening 40-27 loss to LSU, and the Ducks dismantled PAC 12 rival Cal 43-15 at home in a primetime matchup last Thursday night to cover the 23.5 point line.
The Sun Devils feature a wide-open passing offense with quarterback Brock Osweiler and wide receiver Jamal Miles that ranks 29th among FBS teams with 35.3 point per game scored and 24th in passing offense with 291.7 yards per game. The ASU defense led by linebacker Vontaze Burfict ranks 23rd in scoring defense with 19.5 PPG and 41st in total defense with 349 YPG allowed. Oregon posses one of the most explosive offenses in the country, averaging 56 points in their last four games and ranking 2nd among FBS teams in scoring offense with 50.2 PPG and 5th in total offense with 539.6 YPG. The running game is their biggest strength with quarterback Darron Thomas and running back LaMichael James the main cogs in a unit that runs for 312.6 YPG, fifth best in the nation. James is uncertain to play with an elbow injury suffered lat week against Cal. Defensively the Ducks are not the dominant unit they were last season when they appeared in the BCS Title Game, they have allowed 22.6 PPG (45th) and 404.6 YPG (83rd).
ASU vs. Oregon Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Arizona St. Sun Devils +14.5
@Oregon Ducks -14.5
Over 66.5 (-110)
Under 66.5 (-110)
Betting odds taken from BetOnline.com <– $900 FREE on 1st deposit!
ASU vs. Oregon Pick:
The Ducks have won nineteen straight games at home and six straight against ASU, including a 42-31 win in Tempe last season in which they did not cover the 11.5 point line. The over has come in for the teams last three meetings. The over is 7-1 in ASU’s last 8 games overall and the under is 13-6-1 in their last 20 games in October. The Sun Devils are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Oregon is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 October games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The over is 16-5-1 in the Ducks’ last 22 home games.
Oregon is certainly a strong team at home, but the Ducks will be facing one of the better defenses in the conference but one that is not without weaknesses. The Sun Devils are particularly susceptible to the pass on defense, allowing 229.3 YPG through the air so with James either out or slowed down for this game, look for Thomas to throw the ball more and attack ASU’s weakest link in the secondary. The catch for Oregon is that Thomas has been inconsistent through the air this season, and ASU has a defense that has forced 10 turnovers in their last two games and possesses the best player on the field in Burfict. Oregon will not walk all over ASU and this game will be lower-scoring than expected, with a huge total of 66.5 the best play is to take the under with Oregon likely missing its best player on offense and ASU possessing the horses to slow down the Oregon express. Oregon has come in under the total in two of their last three games and that short-term trend will continue here.