Auburn vs. LSU Pick – NCAAF Week 9

A meeting of two Top 10 SEC West teams highlights a busy Week 9 of the NCAAF regular season. The Auburn Tigers checked in at 9th in the latest AP Top 25 poll. They’ll hit the road to take on the 2nd ranked LSU Tigers in a last Saturday afternoon tilt.

Auburn suffered its lone loss of the season two weeks ago in a road game at Florida. They bounced back last week with a big road win over Arkansas to enter this matchup with a mark of 6-1. LSU has ripped off seven straight wins to open up the season. QB Joe Burrow has emerged as one of the favorites for this year’s Heisman Trophy.

The SEC West is far from a foregone conclusion this season. While Alabama remains the favorite to take it down, both of these programs will have something to say about it. This tilt will make it clear whether Auburn or LSU is the team to watch in the event of an Alabama stumble.

Let’s take a detailed look at what should be a stellar matchup, starting with the current game lines.

Auburn vs. LSU, 3:30 PM EST, Sat. Oct.26, CBS

Spread:

  • Auburn +10.5 (-112)
  • LSU -10.5 (-108)
Money line:

  • Auburn +330
  • LSU -400
Total Points:

  • Over 58.5 (-110)
  • Under 58.5 (-110)

Betting odds provided by Sportsbetting.ag

Auburn vs. LSU Pick:

Auburn was on the road last weekend to take on Arkansas as 19.5-point favorites. They raced out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter in a game which proved to be not much of a contest. In the end, the visitors walked away with a 51-10 win. Bo Nix threw for three scores in the win, while the defense chalked up three sacks and forced four turnovers while holding the Razorbacks to 52 rushing yards.

LSU had a road trip of its own last week as they traveled to Mississippi State as 19-point favorites. This one wasn’t much of a contest either as the visitors held a 27-7 lead at the half en route to cruising to a 36-13 win. Burrow continued his excellent run of play with a 4-TD outing. The defense forced three turnovers and racked up two sacks while holding the Bulldogs in check.

Rec. Conf. PF PA STK STD RNK
Auburn 6-1 3-1 254 120 W1 3-SEC West 9
LSU 7-0 3-0 351 140 W7 2-SEC West 2

Auburn opened up the season with a come-from-behind victory over Oregon. That set the tone for a solid start of 5-0, a span which included a road win over a ranked Texas A&M team. The good times came to an end when they took a trip to Florida as they fell to the Gators by a score of 24-13. They were on the road last week as well, so this marks the third straight away game for the team.

LSU kicked off the year with a 55-3 thrashing of Georgia Southern and hasn’t looked back. The club has victories over two ranked squads this season – 7 points at Texas and 14 points at home versus Florida. Of the team’s seven victories, six have come by double digits. The offense has been prolific this year with 42 points or more in six games. Last week’s 36 points was the lowest output of the season.

Offense

PPG PaYdF RuYdF
AUB 36.3 193.6 239.6
LSU 50.1 385.7 154.1
Defense

PtsAll PaYdA RuYdA
17.1 224.7 94.3
20.0 226.1 93.3
Miscellaneous

SaF SaA ToM PYPG
20 10 +9 56.6
17 12 +12 57.3

Auburn’s offense has been nowhere near as productive as LSU, but the team has dropped 50 points or more on three occasions. The defense has been stout overall, holding all seven opponents to 24 points or less. The run defense is the clear strength of the unit. The team has four double digit victories under its belt in 2019, but the loss to Florida also hit that mark.

Nix has had his moments this season, but he has also struggled at times. To date, he has accounted for 14 total scores versus five picks. Ja’Tarvious Whitlow leads the way out of the backfield with a line of 110/544/7. Seth Williams paces the pass catchers at 25/458/7. Jeremiah Dinson leads the team with 46 tackles, while Marlon Davidson is tops with 5.5 sacks.

LSU’s passing attack is humming this season with an average of 385.7 yards per contest. The run game hasn’t been too shabby either, but the aerial attack has been the clear star of the show. Over on defense, the numbers are strikingly similar to what Auburn brings to the table. The strength is in defending against the run, but the pass defense hasn’t exactly been horrible.

Burrow has thrown for 29 TDs versus just three INTs while completing 79.4 percent of his passes. He has added on two rushing scores for good measure. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the team’s leading rusher with a line of 89/547/7. Justin Jefferson leads the wideouts at 48/759/9. Jacob Philip is the leading tackler with 52, while four players are tied for the team lead with two sacks each.

Recent History

LSU leads the all-time series between these two programs by a margin of 30-22-1. They’ve won the last two in the series as well. Last season, LSU picked up a 22-21 road win. Each of the last three meetings of the two teams have been decided by five points or less.

For the season to date, Auburn is 6-1 against the spread and 3-4 on totals. LSU is 5-2 both ATS and on the Over/Under.

Since the 2016 season, Auburn is 1-4 as a road underdog and 2-3 ATS. LSU is 18-2 as a home favorite over that span and 9-10-1 ATS.

The Verdict

It doesn’t get much better than a rivalry game between two programs who both just so happen to be ranked in the Top 10. Voters have become infatuated with LSU these days, as the program has received first-place votes in the latest poll.

Burrow has been incredibly impressive to boot, so this is a team that could make some noise. However, the schedule intensifies with this game, followed a road date at Alabama in two weeks. LSU passes this test at home to keep the undefeated record intact, but Auburn makes it interesting.

The Bet
AUBURN TIGERS +10.5
-112
Chris Feery / author

Chris has been covering sports professionally since 2014. Initially focused on the NFL and College Football, he has branched out to cover all of the other major team sports such as MLB, NHL, NBA, and College Basketball. Chris also has extensive experience in the world of fantasy sports. His work has been recognized on two separate occasions by the Fantasy Sports Writer's Association. From parlays to power rankings and previews to picks, Chris prides himself on delivering exceptional content with actionable information.