Auburn vs. Texas A&M Pick – NCAAF Week 4

The schedule for Week 4 of the NCAAF regular season includes a number of appealing matchups. This potential dandy featuring a pair of SEC West powerhouses facing off at Kyle Field in College Station, TX certainly fits into that category.

The Auburn Tigers, ranked 8th in the latest AP Top 25 poll, hit the road to take on the #17 Texas A&M Aggies. The visitors come in with a record of 3-0, while the hosts stand at 2-1. Both squads have already faced a big test in the early going with different results.

The Tigers opened up the season with a highly-anticipated neutral site affair versus Oregon. The Ducks had control of the game from the outset, but Auburn would storm back. The comeback was capped with a 26-yard Bo Nix to Seth Williams hookup on a game-winning TD with just seconds left as the club walked away with a thrilling 27-21 win.

For the Aggies, the test couldn’t have been much tougher. In Week 2. The team headed to Death Valley to square off with the defending national champion Clemson Tigers. Texas A&M made a game of it. The defense did a solid job of holding Clemson in check, but the offense just couldn’t break through. Clemson prevailed by a score of 24-10 as 16-point home favorites.

The Aggies are slight home favorites for this tilt. While it’s still early, this game will help provide further clarity on the SEC West, which is absolutely loaded as per usual. Four of the seven teams in the division are ranked in the latest poll, with three of them ranked in the Top 10. Let’s take a detailed look at what should be a fascinating contest.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M, 3:30 PM EST, Sat. Sept.21, CBS

Spread:

  • Auburn +3.5 (-110)
  • Texas A&M -3.5 (-110)
Money line:

  • Auburn +150
  • Texas A&M -170
Total Points:

  • Over 47.5 (-115)
  • Under 47.5 (-105)

Betting odds provided by Sportsbetting.ag

Auburn vs. Texas A&M Pick:

On Saturday, Auburn played host to Kent State. They easily covered as 36.5-point favorites, cruising to a 55-16 win. Nix contributed two total scores on the day. JaTarvious Whitlow ran for 135 yards and two scores in the rout. All told, the Tigers backfield combined for 467 yards and six scores, while the defense racked up five sacks.

Texas A&M was home last week and had an easy day as well. They welcomed Lamar to town and proceeded to wipe the field with them in a 62-3 laugher. Kellen Mond threw for 317 yards, one score, and one pick and ran for another TD. The Aggies backfield as a whole ran for 223 yards and five scores. The defense held their overmatched opponents to a total of 197 yards.

REC Conf. PF PA STK STD RNK
AUBURN 3-0 0-0 106 43 W3 2-SEC West 8
TEXAS A&M 2-1 0-0 113 34 W1 2-SEC West 17

In between the Oregon and Kent State games, Auburn was home for a tilt with Tulane. This one was a bit more competitive. The Tigers were 16.5-point favorites at kickoff and picked up a 24-6 win. The offense was held relatively in check by a tough Green Wave defense, but Tigers defenders stepped up as well.

For A&M, their first game of the season was a home date with Texas State. It wasn’t much of a contest, but the Aggies just barely covered in a 41-7 win as 33.5-point favorites. Kellen Mond accounted for four total scores, while the Texas A&M defense forced four turnovers.

Offense

PFPG PaYd RuYd
AUB 35.3 183.3 281.7
TAMU 37.7 292.7 174.0
Defense

PtsAll RuYdA PaYdA
14.3 191.3 100.7
11.3 184.7 83.7
Miscellaneous

SaF SaA ToM PYPG
8 3 2 56.7
5 3 0 56.0

Nix has been solid but unspectacular behind center for Auburn. He has completed 52.4 percent of his passes for 545 yards, four scores, and two picks. Whitlow leads the way out of the backfield with a line of 64/341/3 to date. On defense, Jeremiah Dinson has racked up 27 tackles already, while Marlon Davidson leads with 2.5 sacks.

The same applies for Mond. He has done a solid job, but he’s also not exactly lighting it up. He has seven total scores and 747 passing yards while also throwing three picks. Isaiah Spiller is the team’s leading rusher with 28 carries for 246 yards and two TDs. Buddy Johnson leads the team with 14 tackles, while the defense as a whole has managed five sacks through three games. s per game and allowing 28.0 per contest thus far.

Recent History

For the all-time series between these two programs, the Aggies hold a 5-4 advantage, but the Tigers have won the last two in a row. The teams have hooked up each year since 2012 with Auburn leading 4-3 over that span.

Last season, the clubs faced off on Auburn’s home field. The Tigers were 3.5-point favorites at kickoff. After trailing by a score of 24-14 at the end of three quarters, Auburn roared back with two TDs to escape with a 28-24 victory.

For the season, the Tigers are 3-0 against the spread and 1-2 on totals. The Aggies are also 3-0 ATS and 1-2 on the Over/Under. Last season, Auburn checked in at 8-5 overall, 6-7 ATS, and 5-8 on totals. Texas A&M was 9-4 straight-up, 9-4 ATS, and 7-6 on totals.

As away underdogs over the last three seasons, the Tigers are 0-4 overall and 1-3 ATS. Over the same span, the Aggies are 17-1 straight-up as home favorites and 11-7 ATS.

The Verdict

Last year’s meeting of these two squads was tight, and it looks like we can expect more of the same this time around. The two clubs match up well overall. A&M gets the edge on passing, while the Tigers have the stronger rushing game. The defenses are in range of each other after three games.

Add it all up, and we could be in line for another tilt which isn’t decided until the final quarter. The home field advantage is strong for the Aggies, a team which is also looking to make a statement after falling at Clemson a couple of weeks ago.

Those two factors should be the difference maker as the Aggies win and cover.

My Pick
TEXAS A&M AGGIES -3.5
Chris Feery / Author

Chris has been covering sports professionally since 2014. Initially focused on the NFL and College Football, he has branched out to cover all of the other major team sports such as MLB, NHL, NBA, and College Basketball. Chris also has extensive experience in the world of fantasy sports. His work has been recognized on two separate occasions by the Fantasy Sports Writer's Association. From parlays to power rankings and previews to picks, Chris prides himself on delivering exceptional content with actionable information.