Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Pick – NCAAF Week 8

The Baylor Bears and Texas Longhorns both stay in the state of Texas on Saturday. The Bears and Longhorns will meet in Austin at Texas Memorial Stadium for a Big 12 matchup. Texas hasn’t played since losing to Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown on October 10. That was a wildly entertaining game, which saw Texas forcing overtime late and then ultimately losing by a score of 53-45.

It was their second straight loss after a 33-31 defeat against the TCU Horned Frogs a week earlier. They have two wins over UTEP, 59-3, and Texas Tech, 63-56. The Texas Tech game was another overtime contest for Texas.The defense has been giving Sam Ehlinger no help whatsoever. I have no complaints with Ehlinger, but their defense will have to figure it out at some point.

They aren’t quite as bad as the defense that Patrick Mahomes had to work with at Texas Tech. However, the Longhorns don’t do a lot right, and haven’t shown how to correct their mistakes yet. When Texas Tech was doing anything they wanted against Texas’s defense, there were no proper adjustments made for the second half and the onslaught continued.

The same could be said for the Red River Showdown against the Sooners, and this isn’t a year when the Oklahoma offense is flying on all cylinders. Spencer Rattler has been just okay, if you want to compare him to Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, and Kyler Murray. Texas made Rattler look like the next best thing at Oklahoma, though.

Baylor has only played two games on their schedule so far. They’ve had three postponements, including last week against Oklahoma State. The Bears returned to practice last week after having to pause and resume repeatedly because of positive tests. At least they should be fresh against a soft Texas defense on Saturday.

They have that going for them going into Austin. In the two games Baylor did play, the Bears destroyed Kansas, 47-14, and lost on the road against West Virginia in double overtime, 27-21. Baylor doesn’t have Ehlinger or the weapons on offense like the Longhorns, but they do have a serious edge in defense. And if the Longhorns are just going to stand around defensively again, this one could get interesting in the fourth. Head below for our free Baylor vs. Texas pick for October 24, 2020.

Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns NCAAF Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Baylor +10 (-108)
  • Texas -10 (-112)
Moneyline:

  • Baylor (+150)
  • Texas (-355)
Total:

  • Over 61.5 (-115)
  • Under 61.5 (-105)

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Baylor vs. Texas Prediction:

Texas has allowed 400.3 yards per game and 36.3 points per game through their first four games. One of those games was against inept UTEP and another against a below average TCU offense, who scored 33 points. In two outings against good offenses, the Longhorns were ripped for 116 points. Statistically there has been worse in the FBS this season, but UTEP is skewing their numbers. They’ve been worse than their numbers indicate. Charlie Brewer isn’t spectacular, but he’s more than competent of dicing up a bad Texas defense.

The senior has plenty of experience in the Baylor offense. This is his fourth season as the starting quarterback for the Bears. Brewer passed for 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 64.5% completions a season ago. Overall in his career, Brewer has passed for 8,113 yards with 55 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. In other words, he has more than enough experience, and should be able to put some drives together against a beatable Longhorns’ defense.

The Baylor defense is going to have to get stops in this game. In a conference of awful defenses, the Bears are one of the better units in the Big 12. The Bears have allowed 336.5 yards per game to put them in the top-20 in that regard. In two games, Baylor has yielded 20.5 points per game. It’s only Kansas and West Virginia, but I like how they handled the Mountaineers far away from home in their last outing.

Baylor held West Virginia to just 14 points in regulation. The rest of their 13 points were scored in overtime. WVU quarterback Jarret Doege was held to 211 yards passing with a touchdown and 2 interceptions. Doege is no Ehlinger, but the Bears should be able to do enough to get enough stops and get the ball back to their offense. When Baylor has the ball, they will have a nice opportunity to feast on a sieve defense. Laying double digits on this Texas defense doesn’t look too sharp.

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The Bet
BAYLOR BEARS +10
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.