Boise St Fresno St Spread Pick for Week 6 College Football

The Friday night (9:00pm ET) matchup for week 6 of the 2011 college football season features the 6th ranked Boise St. Broncos (4-0) traveling to Fresno, CA to take on the Fresno St. Bulldogs (2-3) in a primetime matchup. Boise St. defeated Nevada at home last week by a score of 30-10, failing to cover the 27.5 point spread. Fresno St. lost to Mississippi at home last we by a score of 38-28 after routing the Vandals at Idaho 48-24 the previous week, easily covering the 3 point spread in that game.

Boise St. vs. Fresno St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Boise St. Broncos -20.5
@ Fresno St. Bulldogs +20.5

Game Total:

Over 58.5 (-110)
Under 58.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from BetOnline.com <– Get $900 FREE on 1st deposit… one of the best betting sites!

Boise State vs Fresno State Pick:

The Broncos, led by Heisman hopeful quarterback Kellen Moore, have not been as explosive on offense as they were last season but they still have averaged 303.2 yards per game through the air (20th in the nation) and 36.5 points per game (28th in the nation). Defensively the Broncos have held opponent to 16.8 PPG and 298.8 YPG, both good for the top 20 nationally. Moore had an uncharacteristically poor game last week against Nevada, throwing for a career-low 142 yards and threw two first half interceptions. Fresno St. is primarily a passing team with QB Derek Carr (10 TDs, 4 INTs) commanding an offense that averages 30.6 PPG and 258.2 YPG through the air. The Bulldog defense has been one of the worst units in the country, allowing 32.4 PPG (97th among FBS teams) and 172.4 rushing YPG (87th among FBS teams).

Boise St. has won five straight contests against Fresno St. and eight of their last nine, including a 51-0 whitewashing last season at home. The Broncos are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on grass. The under is 8-1-1 in Boise State’s last 10 games overall. Fresno St. is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Friday games and the over is 7-2 in their last 9 games as an underdog. In head-to-head play, the favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between the two teams.

Boise St. will have sophomore wide receiver Geraldo Boldewijn back from suspension for the game Friday night; he is a big-play threat for Moore and could have a big impact against a Fresno St. team that has struggled with giving up big plays this season. The Bulldogs allowed Mississippi to average 26.8yards per pass play in last week’s loss, and their soft run defense should allow running back Doug Martin, who ran for 6 yards per carry against Nevada last week, to have a big day. The presence of a big-play threat at wide receiver and their ability to run the ball against a porous Fresno defense will take some of the pressure off of Moore and allow him to come back strong from the worst game of his career. Moore has thrown for 727 yards with nine TDs and only one INT in his three career games against Fresno, and it is hard to see him not having another big day against a team that that has not been able to stop anyone this season. The Bulldogs have averaged over 30 PPG as well this season, so they should be able to provide a few big plays as well. Boise has established a trend with the under recently, but that record has come against teams like Nevada and Tulsa that average under 30 points per game. The over is the play to make here as Boise scored 51 against Fresno themselves last season, the Bulldogs should be able to make more of a game of it this season and push the total past 58.5.

PICK = Over 58.5

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