Bowling Green vs. Buffalo Pick – NCAAF Week 11

Back on the MAC weekday grind on Tuesday, as the Bowling Green Falcons and Buffalo Bulls meet for a battle between a 2-7 and 3-6 team. It’s better than what we got last week in the MAC, where we had Bowling Green against Kent State. Buffalo have at least shown some signs of life, kind of, and have three wins on the year.

Buffalo are still alive with respects to bowl eligibility, but will need to win their last three games to be considered for a bowl game. For small schools like Buffalo, going to a bowl game is something to get excited about. Some of those games are the most fun bowls, because you have teams there who actually want to win. Other than that, and the main bowl games, schools treat them as glorified scrimmages.

Buffalo is known for being the school that Khalil Mack attended. It’s crazy that he fell through the cracks and went to the University of Buffalo. Nonetheless, there are some talented players that have come from the MAC. Off the top off my head, Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger, James Harrison, and J.J. Watt all played in the conference. Watt did ultimately transfer to Wisconsin, though, and the rest is history.

Bowling Green got a blowout win on the road last week, downing the useless Kent State Golden Flashes by a score of 44-16. The Falcons needed a win like that, after losing six of seven games. Bowling Green got Jarret Doege back at quarterback and it helped immensely. Doege is only a freshman, so he’s getting valuable experience in his first-year of college.

Bowling Green hopes he will be the next Matt Johnson, who led the Falcons to championships during his time in school. As a freshman, it looks like he has plenty of potential. Against Kent State, Doege passed for 174 yards and connected on 14-of-18 passes. He also chipped in with a couple of touchdown passes in a winning effort. Conversely, Buffalo are on a four-game losing streak and need to find a perfect 3-0 finish for a bowl. Let’s get straight to our Tuesday night pick in the MAC below.

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Buffalo Bulls Betting Odds:

Spread:
Bowling Green +8(-110)
vs. Buffalo -8(-110)

Total:
Over 60(-110)
Under 60(-110)

Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv

Bowling Green vs. Buffalo Pick:

Buffalo haven’t had a win since they beat Kent State, 27-13. In other words, Kent State is a punching bad for the rest of the MAC. If you need a win badly, go and play the Golden Flashes and it should work out alright. The Bulls were hoping for a breakout year from Tyree Jackson at quarterback. He’s a massive kid at 6’7” 245 pounds. The best part of his game is his mobility.

Jackson has rushed for 222 yards and 4 touchdowns. No he isn’t a burner, but he moves around nicely in the pocket. If he could only improve the touch he puts on the ball. Jackson threw for 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions a year ago, and currently has 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in five appearances. With a completion percentage of 59.9%, that will have to come up some.

The Bulls are on a three-game losing streak, taking losses against Akron, Miami-Ohio and Western Michigan in overtime. The only games they’ve won by more than 11 points in was against Colgate and Kent State. Their other win was a 34-31 final vs FAU. Bowling Green are 110th in the country, allowing 36 points per game. They’re also allowing 497 yards per game for 124th in the FBS. I think Jackson should be able to have a coming out party against this defense.

Buffalo are allowing 24.7 points per game, so are you wondering where the odds makers got the line for this game? All things considered, though, I thought we’d see a line of -5.5 or -6 instead of –8 or -9. The Bulls haven’t beaten Bowling Green in their last six attempts. In other words, I see them trying to trap people into Bowling Green money. In games like this, you have to look for any angle you can get.

They also see that Buffalo haven’t beaten anyone for more than 11 points, other than Colgate and Kent State. Note, though, they played Minnesota, Army, and Western Michigan close. Bowling Green looked good last week, but it was against what who may be the worst team in college football. So, they looked better than they actually are, in my opinion. Buffalo pull away late for a win and cover. I am going contrarian with this pick with a small play on Buffalo.

PICK: BUFFALO -8 (-110)

Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.