Broncos Chiefs Spread Betting Line and Predictions/Picks

The Denver Broncos laid a historical beat down on the Kansas City Chiefs 49-29 three weeks ago in Mile High Stadium. KC Head Coach Todd Hailey was not happy with the way Broncos coach Josh McDaniels apparently ran up the score, and he refused to shake his hand following the game. Hailey, one of the best player’s coaches in the league will have his team young team fired up and ready to try exact some revenge over the Broncos this week. The game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. EST.

The Chiefs sit atop of the AFC West with a 7-4 record, and they’re playing good football against poor teams and improving their record because of it. Their 7 wins have been impressive and they are certainly a team for the future, but if we take a look at the teams they’ve beaten it paints a clearer picture as to what this team really is. Five of their 7 victories have come against opponents with losing records (Cle, SF, Buff, Ari, Sea) while San Diego and Jacksonville were the other two. However their 4 losses have come against better teams or divisional games (Den, Oak, Indi, Hou), with the exception of Houston not being a better team. This week’s match is very important as they can’t afford to go 1-3 in the division. Their game plan will be to run the ball with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones all day against the league’s second worst run defense. In all 5 of Denver’s away games this year, they’ve given up over 100 yards on the ground to opposing backs. KC’s number 1 running unit will look to feast on this stat this week.

The Broncos have lived and died by the passing game in 2010. Players like Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd and Jabbar Gaffney have been monsters in fantasy leagues nationwide, but that generally doesn’t translate well into the reality league. At 3-8, Denver fans are wondering if McDaniels is the right guy for the job, and after last week’s Spy Gate affair, people are really starting to think hard about the decisions that McDaniels has made since becoming head coach (Cutler and Marshall). Either way, their game plan this week won’t change from 3 weeks ago; they’ll try to come out fast and rattle the young Chiefs and take the crowd out of the game. The Chiefs secondary started out the year very well, but the Broncos receivers can burn just about anyone and the passing game will once again be the focal point here. Denver have the 4th best passing game in the league and the 30th best running game. It’s a no brainer as to what they’ll try to do.

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Broncos vs. Chiefs Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Denver Broncos +9
@ Kansas City Chiefs -9

Game Total:

Over (-110)
48.5
Under (-110)

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Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction for Week 13 Betting:

Game Total Prediction (Top Play): When I saw this game this week I expected the number to be north of 50 given the offensive ability of both teams and the meeting that took place 3 weeks ago. But 48.5 is a gift in this game, and I’m making this my top play of the week. The Chiefs have gone over 30 in their last two (since they lost to Denver) and even in the loss to the Broncos they put up 29. WR Dwayne Bowe had 3 more TD receptions last week. He’s playing angry and he’s finally holding on to the ball (he had more drops last year than any other receiver). KC rank 4th in total points scored, and at home this year they average over 27 ppg. The Broncos can also score, but it’s their defense that gives me more confidence in this play. They rank dead last in points conceded, giving up almost 3o points per game to opponents. The odds makers think that the Chiefs will score but the Broncos won’t have an answer, but even if the score line is similar to the Broncos Chargers game 2 weeks ago that finished 35-14 to San Diego, the Over will still hit. The Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in KC and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings outright.

Top Play Prediction = Over 48.5

Spread Prediction: There are two 9 point spreads this week, the other one being GB -9 vs. San Fran, and this year they’ve been the hardest games to pick. As we saw on Thursday night between the Texans and Eagles, one play can be the difference between winning by a TD or winning by 10. The Texans had all the time in the fourth quarter to cover the spread, and should have, but couldn’t execute. This week the odds makers are making the Chiefs big favorites in response to their loss in the first meeting, and I agree with them. Coming off close games this year the Broncos have been poor. After beating Seattle in week 2 they were double digit losers to the Colts in Denver the very next week; after beating the Titans in Tennessee in week 3 they were double digit losers to the Ravens the very next week; after losing to the Jets by 4 in week 6, they gave up 59 in a shellacking by the Raiders the very next week; and after beating KC 3 weeks ago, they were double digit losers to the Chargers the very next week. Last week they played a good game and just lost out to the Rams by 3 points. They’ve been up and down all year, and if we follow the pattern, all signs points to another double digit loss this week. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and the Broncos are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 in KC.

Spread Prediction = KC – 9

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