BYU vs. San Diego State Over/Under Pick – CFB Poinsettia Bowl Game

The 2012 bowl season continues with Thursday night (8:00pm ET) action from Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA with the BYU Cougars (7-5) taking on the hometown San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) out of the Mountain West Conference. BYU is 6-6 ATS this season, but have covered in three fo their last five games to close out the regular season; including a 50-14 win at New Mexico State as a 28 point favorite in their final game on November 24th to gain their bowl eligibility. San Diego State is 804 ATS this season; the Aztecs have covered in their last three games, and in six of their last seven contests to close out the regular season.

The Cougar offense has a ranking of 66th among all FBS teams in scoring with an average of 29.2 points per game and 56th in the nation in total offense with 409.1 yards per game. The defense for BYU has been stingy this season, ranking an impressive 5th among FBS teams in scoring defense with 14.7 PPG allowed and 3rd in total defense with 266.3 YPG allowed.

San Diego State has averaged 35.1 PPG on offense to rank 28th in the nation in scoring offense and the Aztecs rank 58th in total offense with 407.8 YPG accumulated. Sophomore QB Adam Dingwell has started the last four games for injured starter Ryan Katz, and has completed 63.3% of his passes for 767 yards with * TDs and 4 INTs. The defense for SDSU ranks 44th in the nation in scoring with 24.5 PGP allowed, and 43rd in total defense with 375.8 YPG allowed.

BYU vs. San Diego State Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

BYU Cougars -3.5
@ San Diego State Aztecs +3.5

Game Total:

Over 48 (-110)
Under 48 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

BYU vs. San Diego State Pick:

BYU has a 4-0 record ATS in their last 4 games in December, an 8-3 record ATS in their last 11 games against winning teams and a 5-2 record ATS in their last 7 bowl games. The Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against independent teams. The under is 11-2 in BYU’s last 13 games against teams with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 Thursday games and 5-2 in their last 7 neutral site games. The under is 5-2 in SDSU’s last 7 Thursday games, 4-0 in their last 4 games against independents and 13-5 in their last 18 games following an ATS win; but the over is 6-2 in their last 8 games against winning teams. In head-to-head play, BYU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Aztecs, and the home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

The Aztecs have an advantage in this game in that they will be playing a home game, and they have a successful track record in this bowl game having defeated Navy 35-14 two years ago in the Poinsettia Bowl. The two teams are historical rivals, and are quite familiar with each other having played in the same conference since 1978, until BYU became an independent last season. BYU leads the all-time series 27-7-1, and is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. The Aztecs are red-hot coming into this game on a seven-game winning streak after a 2-3 start to the season. BYU has been almost impossible to run against this season, ranking 2nd in the nation with 84.2 YPG allowed, but the Aztecs have run for 229.2 YPG to rank 15th among FBS behind running back Adam Muema (1,355 yards rushing, 17 TDs) and the combination of two strong running teams and one of the best defenses in the country for the Cougars makes the under a strong play in this game. With BYU owning this series and SDSU playing at home and on a long winning streak, the spread is too tough to call here, take the under in this game.

PICK = Under 48