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Colorado State vs. Boise State NCAAF Pick – Week 8

The Boise State Broncos had New Year’s Six aspirations. However, with two losses under their belt against Oklahoma State and San Diego State, that’s just about gone out the window. Boise State figured to be competing with UCF for the honors of being known as the best non Power-5 school. Along with that, would have been a big bowl game. The way it’s going for Boise State, they might be heading back to the Las Vegas Bowl again.

Their win over Oregon in that game last season set in motion high expectations for 2018. With their game against Oklahoma State, they had a chance to prove that they are for real. However, they were clearly outmatched in a 44-21 loss. The idea that this team was going to look like the Kellen Moore teams quickly evaporated. Those are the games that Moore and Chris Petersen would have won.

Boise State are coming off a 31-27 win over Nevada in Reno. They’ve always had issues with the Wolf Pack in Nevada, so that wasn’t too surprising. If you recall, Nevada beat Boise State because of a missed chip shot for the win years ago to go to the Rose Bowl. Colin Kaepernick was the quarterback at Nevada then, which snapped a 24-game winning streak for the Broncos.

The Broncos have played only two games at home this season on the blue turf. It’s where they are most dangerous, but San Diego State came to play in Idaho a couple of weeks ago. The Aztecs knocked them off 19-13, for a rare loss at home for Boise State. In their other matchup at home, they dismantled UConn, 62-7. If the odds makers are correct, this shouldn’t be a close game with the 23.5-point spread. Colorado State are coming in with a bit of confidence after defeating San Jose State and New Mexico the past two weeks. Head below for our free Colorado State vs. Boise State pick.

Colorado State Rams vs. Boise State Broncos NCAAF Betting Odds:

Spread:
Colorado State -2.5(-115)
vs. Boise State +2.5(-105)

Total:
Over 62.5(-110)
Under 62.5(-110)

Betting odds provided by Sportsbetting.ag

Colorado State vs. Boise State Pick:

Brett Rypien has not been on point in his last two games. Despite starting the year off on fire with 12 touchdowns and no interceptions, Rypien has hit a wall with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions against San Diego State and Nevada. The San Diego State secondary is very good and it showed as Rypien tossed just 170 yards with 2 interceptions.

He responded with 299 yards and 2 touchdowns vs Nevada last week, but Rypien was careless with the ball and threw 3 interceptions. He still has the chance to put up good looking numbers by the end of the season. Rypien has thrown 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions overall. He has been accurate with 67.4% completions.

I’ve always believed Rypien is one of those quarterbacks who can accumulate monster numbers against bad defenses and look pedestrian against a defense who know what they are doing. Colorado State’s secondary has been worked for 242.1 passing yards per game for 94th in the FBS this season.

Hawaii and Colorado both scored over 40 points on this defense, as did Florida and Illinois State. The Gators outmuscled them for a 48-10 final for their biggest loss of the year. San Jose State, a bottom-tier team in the FBS scored 30 in a 42-30 loss to Colorado State.

The Rams have also struggled against the run, as they enter 108th in the nation with 204.1 yards per game. This looks like the perfect game for Rypien to get back on track and the offense racks up at least 40 points on the blue turf. I’d be surprised if they look sloppy for three weeks in a row.

The hope of Colorado State pulling an upset likely falls in the hands of Colorado State QB, K.J. Carta-Samuels. If it feels like Carta-Samuels has been around forever, it’s likely because you are thinking of his brother who played at Wyoming and Vanderbilt. Also, K.J. is a fifth-year transfer from Washington so the name has been around.

Carta-Samuels has been sharp recently with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in his last three games. Overall, he’s connected for 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, while leading the Rams to 25 points per game. Colorado State likely see around that many points tonight, which would likely put the spread in a toss-up situation. With that said, we should have enough to cash the OVER with a 45-24 final or thereabouts.

The Bet
OVER 62.5

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