Dolphins Jets Spread Betting Odds and Predictions

The Dolphins’ playoff hopes were all but extinguished with their last minute loss to the Cleveland Browns last week. It was a battle of who could give him the game away best, with Chad Henne finally succeeding as he threw an interception that put the Browns deep in Miami territory near the end of the 4th quarter. Henne has battled inconsistently throughout the season, even being benched for Chad Pennington at one point. Last week did him no favors in making a case for a starting spot next year, and you can bet the Dolphins front office will want to bring in some serious competition to challenge for the starting gig. The Fins aren’t mathematically out of it yet though sitting at 6-6, so it is actually to their benefit to be playing the Jets, as they can assure that they will pick up a game on them with a win here. Although Henne has been far less than spectacular, a lot of the blame for Miami’s mediocre season can be attributed to the running game. For the past couple of seasons, the dual-headed monster of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown propelled Miami to a division crown in 2008. Now, Brown has topped 80 yards only once, and has failed to hit the century mark rushing all season. He has also only hit paydirt 3 times; numbers not nearly good enough for a run-first team. His partner in crime Ricky Williams has actually performed a little better, but still hasn’t rushed for over 100 yards either. The chances of either man returning next year seems slim, as the Dolphins are another team that seem like they need a complete overhaul to turn the franchise around.

The Jets were utterly embarrassed on national television last Monday night, as the Patriots laid down a complete thrashing on them. One can only imagine what Rex Ryan has been saying and doing to his team during practice, but you can rest assured they will be eager to make up for their lackluster performance. As it stands now, the Jets are at 9-3, and one game back of New England. They do hold the top wildcard spot at the moment, as they are a game up on Baltimore, and 3 games up on a handful of 6-6 teams, including the Dolphins. More importantly for the Jets is catching the Patriots and getting that 1st round bye, which means that they need to beat Miami to keep pace. If they are to do so, the defense obviously needs to play infinitely better than they did against Tom Brady and his cohorts. In addition, Mark Sanchez needs to figure things out fast, as he looked absolutely lost last week against a defense ranked 2nd last in passing yards per game. He needs to show the poise that gave the Jets a series of last minute victories earlier in the year. After an incredible start to the year, LaDainian Tomlinson has slowed considerably, failing to total more than 57 rushing yards since week 6, and hasn’t scored a touchdown since then either. As we head down the stretch, look for Shonn Greene to continue to syphon some of Tomlinson’s carries, as at this point they are in basically an equal time share. Greene is probably the more dynamic runner at this point, but he has failed to truly emerge in a way that many figured he would do in his sophomore year. For the Jets to be successful, they are dependent on their ground game being effective to limit the amount of work that Sanchez has to do.

This game will be won and lost in the trenches, as both teams will be looking to establish their run games early and dominate the battle for field position. This gives the advantage to the Jets, who rank 3rd in the league in fewest rushing yards allowed at 87.5 per game. The Dolphins are by no means a walkover, as they are also averaging under 100 rushing yards allowed. They were also able to hold bulldozer Peyton Hillis pretty much at bay last week, which is no small feat. Through the air, Miami has actually been the more effective of the two defenses, as they are allowing 201.3 passing yards per game in comparison to the Jets’ 218.4. Based on all of these numbers, its clear that the strength of both teams lies in their defense, Monday night’s game notwithstanding.

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Dolphins vs Jets Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Miami Dolphins +5.5
@ New York Jets -5.5

Game Total:

Over (-110)
40.5
Under (-110)

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Dolphins vs Jets Betting Predictions/Picks for Week 14

Game Total Prediction (TOP PICK): When these two teams met earlier in the year, they combined for 54 points. But now both offenses are sputtering, and the Jets’ defense will be looking to put their worst game behind them with a strong effort here. This is a game where both kickers could be very active, as the teams have the running ability to get it into field goal range, but seem to lack the scoring punch to find the endzone. In the Dolphins’ last 6 on the road, the Under has hit 5 times. As a road underdog, the Under has come up for Miami 11 of 14 times. This game is not going to be an offensive spectacle, but rather a feisty, dirty war in the trenches between two division rivals who can’t stand each other. In games like this, not a lot of points will be forthcoming. Back the Under.

Pick (TOP PICK): Under 40.5

Spread Prediction: The Dolphins are one of those rare teams that seems to perform far better on the road, where they sport a 5-1 record. They have actually been playing relatively decent as of late, narrowly losing to the Browns (who are much better than people think), beating up on Oakland (who subsequently manhandled San Diego), and beating Tennessee. Their only stinker in that span was against Chicago where they were shut out, but Tyler Thigpen was the starting quarterback for Miami in that one. Conversely, the Jets have only won by more than 6 points once in their last 7 games. Additionally, as an underdog, the Dolphins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a straight up loss. Meanwhile, the Jets are only 4-9 ATS following a straight up loss. While it may be a surprising pick, the Dolphins are the play here with 5.5 points to fall back on.

Pick: Dolphins +5.5

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