DraftKings Strategy – Week 14 Recap

Hey guys, Kevin here and I want to introduce a new type of article here at The Sports Geek, that we will run weekly if the feedback is good.  In this article I’ve invited Jason (also known at DFSGolfer23 on twitter) to take a look at some DFS “pros” lineups, strategies and results in the previous NFL week.  I think it’s a great learning tool to see what the DFS players who are playing the highest volume are doing on a weekly basis, and when I saw Jason writing these types of articles for golf I thought it would be great to invite him to do the same for NFL here at The Sports Geek. Take it away Jason…

Thanks for reading the first edition of “First & 10”. If you haven’t read my DFS Golf Article “The First Tee”, my objective is to help you all become more informed and hopefully earn some good money along the way. I provide a weekly strategy review of the high volume “pros” as well as my thoughts for the upcoming week. Want to see a specific user on the list? Hear my thoughts on developing trends? Feel free to tweet me and follow me @dfsgolfer23 with any questions suggestions or comments. Enjoy reading!

Weekly DraftKings Roundup – Week 14

Each week I’ll try and provide a brief roundup of some general thoughts on the week, and include my results as well.

My Fantasy Week Recap: I had lower ownership on Lev Bell than I wanted, but I saved the weekend and turned a profit by coming in 4th, and 25th in the Sunday-Monday $3 65K Sunday Special.

The Winning Strategy: For the Sunday, only Slate- The broncos stack with Lev Bell, if you found that and hit a few if your secondary players you absolutely cashed. If you were playing the all game slate it was the one and only GOAT Tom Brady that you needed to have in your lineup alongside Bell.

Right & Wrong

• Where I went Right – Tyler Eifert – Had him just about 40%
• Where I Went Wrong- Not enough Bell.

Player Ownership Analysis

This Section is where I will breakdown the high volume ‘pros’. I will post any top 25 finishes across a the biggest 3 Dk Contests of the week, additionally I will include the ownership %s of their top owned players and a breakdown of the number of players used per position. These %s will be taken from the Weekly Millionaire Maker Contest.

SaahilSud –Across the industry Saahil is widely known for his high-volume play and superb finishes in big tournaments.

• Results:
o $3 Play Action 1.15M- 150 Entries entered: Best Finish-5164th
o $27 Millionaire Maker- 150 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 506th
o $333 – 150 Entries Entered: Best Finish-40th 90th

• Players Used & top Ownership
o QB – 11 – Kaepernick 23%
o RB – 16 – Crowell- 42%/T.Coleman-35%/Lev Bell-31%
o WR – 22 – ODB-32%/Evans-27.3%/Garcon-25%
o TE – 10 – Eric Ebron-30%
o DEF – 8 – Vikings-27%

PapaGates –A winner this year of the millionaire maker contest, among some other fantastic finishes. He and his brother (Chipotleaddict) are widely known for the investigations DraftKings launched into the brothers ‘practices’. At this point nothing as come of it and no sanctions or penalties have been assessed. Regardless they are both fantastic players with plenty of accolades behind them.

• Results:
o $3 Play Action 1.15M – 150 Entries entered: Best Finish – 561st
o $27 Millionaire Maker- 150 Entries Entered: Best Finish – 219th
o $333 – 150 Entries Entered: Best Finish -11th, 33rd, 89th, 91st, 100th

• Players Used & top Ownership
o QB – 11 – Rodgers 32%
o RB – 11 – Crowell- 64%/M.Gordon-63%/Lev Bell-37%
o WR – 20 – ODB-69%/Garcon-50%/Matthews-42%
o TE – 7 – Greg Olsen-88%
o DEF – 11 – Dolphins-33%

JAE686 – Jason is a notorious player across all sports was one of only 5 players to max the 3 biggest contests. A great “Wildcat” for him this week I’m sure helped to make it a profitable weekend.

• Results:
o $3 Play Action 1.15M – 150 Entries entered: Best Finish -468th
o $27 Millionaire Maker – 150 Entries Entered: Best Finish – 169th
o $333 – 150 Entries Entered: Best Finish – 9th, 13th, 27th, 29th, 40th, 50th , 65th, 75th

• Players Used & top Ownership
o QB – 15 – Cousins-29%
o RB – 12 – Bell-98%/David Johnson-79%/Gurley-45%
o WR – 20 – Garcon-54%/ODB-40%/T.Gabriel-32%
o TE – 10 – Jason Witten-42%
o DEF – 16 – Bucs-16%

ChipotleAddict – The Aforementioned brother to ‘papagates’ is our 4th user to max all 3 contests. Lets check out and see if fared better than his brother.

• Results:
o $3 Play Action 1.15M – 150 Entries entered: Best Finish – 901st
o $27 Millionaire Maker – 150 Entries Entered: Best Finish – 336th
o $333 – 150 Entries Entered: Best Finish – 25th, 44th, 61st, 75th, 81st

• Players Used & top Ownership
o QB-23- Palmer-17%
o RB-9- L.Bell-91%/M.Goron-54%/D.Freman-27%/
o WR-33- Cameron Meredith-64%/Jordan Matthews-45%/Garcon-29%
o TE-17-Greg Olsen- 53%
o DEF-16-Dolphins-54%

Superm123 – I must confess, this is the one name I did not recognize, and is the 5th and final user that maxed the 333 and milly maker.

• Results:
o $27 Millionaire Maker – 150 Entries Entered: Best Finish – 644
o $333 – 150 Entries Entered: Best Finish – 47th

• Players Used & top Ownership
o QB – 9 – Russel Wilson- 26%
o RB – 12 – Rawls-30%/Forte-26%/Jay Ajayi-24%
o WR – 20 – D.Thomas-28%/Baldwin-28%/J.Matthews-26%
o TE – 10 – Jason Witten-42%
o DEF – 7 – Broncos-15%

Amorris525 – Wow. A single entry user is or newest millionaire. Here is his one entry.

QB Kirk Cousins RB Le’Veon Bell RB Jeremy Hill WR Emmanuel Sanders WR Jarvis Landry WR Taylor Gabriel TE Zach Ertz FLEX DeSean Jackson DST Falcons

The Pro Review:

I will summarize the average number of players used per position, and the average high ownership for that position.

QBs – 14 with an ownership of 25%
RB – 12 with an ownership of 65%
WR – 23 with an ownership of 50%
TE – 11 with an ownership of 51%
D/ST – 12 with an ownership of 29%

Week 15 Look Ahead

Stats to know:

3 weeks left in the regular season, and only 2 playoff spots clinched, teams will be vying to put their best product out there. Below I’ll provide some key stats that always go into my model when making lineup.

Highest Vegas O/U- SF @ ATL 51.5

Lowest Vegas O/U- JAX @ HOU 39.5

Top Point Spread – 13.5 ATL > SF

Player Focus:

In this Section I will highlight my top pick from each position, and give you a sentence or two on why I think it’s a good play.

• QB – Dak Prescott $6,200 2 complete duds in a row. Both good defenses, and now the question looms, is it time for Romo? Or was it just a few blips in the radar. Either way he’s at home against a rather weak, but trending, defense in Tampa. I like him to get back to his 20+ points this week.

• RB – Kenneth Dixon $3,800 The snap rate continues to improve for Dixon, however I think that the Monday night game was more of a product of game flow than anything else, but then again it is certainly something to monitor.

• WR – Tyreek Hill $5,700 Rookie of the year candidate for the AFC? He is clearly a part of their game plan, and is always a candidate for a hill/chiefs d/st rainbow.

• TE – Delanie Walker $3,900 Seriously…3900? It seems way to low for a guy that gets 22% of the teams targets and 23% of the teams red zone targets. Seems like the most logical and safest play.

• DST – Buffalo $3,600 RG3 looked dreadful last week, and if it weren’t lev Bell, BUFF played pretty decent. I like the price here.

Want more? Need lineup suggestions?

Tweet me and follow me @DFSgolfer23. Good Luck!