Florida LSU Spread Pick for College Football Week 6

The top matchup in the SEC this weekend features the 17th ranked Florida Gators (4-1) traveling down to Baton Rouge, LA this Saturday afternoon (3:30pm ET) to take on the top-ranked LSU Tigers (5-0) in an exciting matchup. Florida was manhandled in their first loss of the season last week by then-3rd ranked Alabama 38-10 at home in their worst loss at Florida Field since a 36-7 loss in 2002 to LSU. LSU rolled over Kentucky at home by a count of 35-7, but did not cover the 29.5 point line.

The Gator offense under new offensive coordinator Charlie Weis has been less than spectacular through the air, ranking 86th in the nation in passing with 203.6 yards per contest. They will be at an even greater disadvantage Saturday as quarterback John Brantley will be out with an ankle injury, freshman Jeff Driskel who replaced him against Alabama in the second half and threw for only 14 yards, will be the likely starter. The Gator defense has been the team’s strength this year, allowing 14.8 points per game (13th among FBS teams) and ranking 6th in yards allowed with 258.6 per game. LSU has former starting QB Jordan Jefferson back from suspension, and although he is not expected to start, Jefferson will likely play as he scored on his first play back last week on a fourth-and-goal touchdown to take a 7-0 lead against Kentucky. The return of Jefferson adds another dimension to the offense, as his running ability sets him apart from current starter Jarrett Lee. The offense has not exactly been stagnant with Lee at the helm, scoring 38 points per game (19th among FBS teams) even though they rank near the bottom (100th in nation) in passing yards with 177 per game. Defensively LSU has allowed only 262.2 YPG to rank 9th among FBS teams.

Florida vs. LSU Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Florida Gators +13.5
@LSU Tigers -13.5

Game Total:

Over 41.5 (-110)
Under 41.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from BetOnline.com <– Click and get $900 FREE on 1st deposit!!

Florida vs. LSU Pick:

The Tigers won last season’s meeting by a score of 33-29 in Gainesville for a wild victory capped by a Jarrett Lee TD pass with 6 seconds left. Florida is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games, and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record. The under is 14-5 in LSU’s last 19 home games and 11-4 in their last 15 games on grass. In head-to-head play, the road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings, and the under is 11-4 in their last 15 meetings.

Florida is going to be relying on Driskel, who went 2 for 6 passing, fumbled a snap and was sacked twice last week, to get the job done on the road against an LSU defense that ranks 9th among FBS teams with 12.8 PPG allowed. He cannot rely on Chris Rainey and the Gator running game to bail him out either, as LSU has been downright impossible to run on with the nation’s 3rd best run defense allowing an average of 60.4 YPG. Expect to see Jordan Jefferson play in this game and make an impact with his legs as Jefferson ran for 42 yards and 2 TDs in last year’s win over the Gators. The under has been the trend in this series, but the over has come in for three of the last four meetings between the two consistently strong defensive teams. With the over/under number at an extremely low 41 for a college football game, it is very tempting to take the over. The best play here is LSU to cover the 13.5 points, with Florida coming in to the game in a state of disarray and starting an inexperienced quarterback in a hostile environment, it is tough to see them putting up much of a fight against an LSU defense that looks as tough as any in the country. Take LSU -13.5 and don’t look back.

PICK = LSU -13.5