Fresno State vs. Boise State NCAAF Pick – Week 11

There should be some good games this week, but Fresno State and Boise State is a game that I’m looking forward to most. Particularly to see how Fresno State stacks up a quality opponent. The Bulldogs are still in the mix for a New Year’s Six Bowl, and the committee may be forced to put both UCF and Fresno State there if they can both win the rest of their remaining games. I actually don’t mind that. Both will be motivated to play, and again, I’m interested in seeing how Fresno State stacks up against the bigger boys.

We’ll have to settle for Boise State at the moment. If they can’t beat Boise State on the blue turf on Friday night, they’re crack at a big school on New Years is going to be out the window. The Bulldogs came up just short on the road to knocking off Minnesota in early September, but Fresno State have looked like a much better team now. And a play here or there and they win that game in Minnesota. Marcus McMaryion has developed into one of the most accurate passers in the country. The only other guy to match his accuracy is a guy you might know, Tua Tagovailoa.

Fresno State has that one blemish against Minnesota on their resume, but are now 7-1 and the 16th ranked team in the FBS. With already a couple of losses, Boise State are sitting outside of the Fresno State-UCF discussion, but they could knock the Bulldogs down a hard notch on Friday night. Brett Rypien is going to have to navigate through a terrific Fresno State defense.

They rank as one of the best in the nation and will pose a significant threat to a Boise team who have struggled against legit defenses this season. They better have done their homework. Fresno are coming off a 48-3 blowout of UNLV. The Rebels couldn’t move on offense and struggled to get the ball past the 50-yard line. The Broncos had to fight in a 21-16 win against BYU. Looking ahead to Fresno State this week? I think both teams were, it’s just that Fresno State could have taken a nap offensively and still won with their defense. Get our free Fresno State vs. Boise State pick below.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Boise State Broncos NFL Week 10 Betting Odds:

Fresno State +3(-113)
vs. Boise State +3(-107)

Over 54(-110)
Under 54(-110)

Betting odds provided by

Fresno State vs. Boise State Pick:

Boise State haven’t looked so crisp offensively against the better defenses this season. They’ve been able to toy with the likes of UConn and Colorado State, but didn’t come out so fortunate against Oklahoma State and San Diego State. I would argue that Fresno State, especially the secondary, is better than both of those units.

Boise State were outgained last week against BYU despite the win. Rypien passed for a touchdown with an interception on 23-for-35 passing and 214 yards. He’s going to have to do much better for Boise State to top the Bulldogs. Fresno State brings in the 14th best defense in the nation to Boise, with an average of 307 yards allowed per game. They are 2nd allowing only 12.3 points per game.

The real unit that the Broncos have to watch for is their secondary. There is talent all over the place that will be looking to disrupt their air game. The Bulldogs are giving up just 177.2 yards per game to the opposition. Rypien’s numbers look excellent, as he’s passed for 24 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

Again, though, he has padded his stats against some poor defenses. When he’s been asked to excel against better defenses, the offense has failed to play as well as his numbers advertise. They are best in the nation at generating interceptions, so will Rypien will have to be careful with the ball or risk turning it over to an opportunistic defense.

Fresno State kept it simple on offense against UNLV, yet they were still able to pile up 48 points on the Rebels. The Bulldogs are averaging 40.4 points per game for 13th in the country. KeeSean Johnson is going to be a major problem for Boise State in this matchup. One of the best wide receivers in the country that you’ve never heard of, will look to take advantage of a Broncos’ defense who have fallen vulnerable to the deep ball.

They are 74th against the pass in the FBS and must contend with a quarterback hitting his targets at a clip of 70.9%. McMaryion has thrown 20 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions on the year. Look for Fresno State to emerge with a win by a touchdown or so in a place where Boise State are virtually never underdogs. I will take the better defense and most accurate QB in the country on Friday night.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.