Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Pick – SEC Championship December 4, 2021

The Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in a battle of the titans in the SEC Championship at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Georgia has been an unmovable object this season, but if there’s any team that might be able to push back, it could be a team that is no stranger to winning the SEC Championship.

Has Alabama been playing at their expected standards this season? Absolutely not. That goes for both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide have been good, but not excellent.

Having said that, all it takes is one game to win the SEC Championship. Beat Georgia and Alabama guarantees a spot in the College Football Playoff.

If the Bulldogs lose, then they’re probably still good for a spot in the playoff. This would be their only loss of the season, and it came against a top-4 Alabama team.

The Bulldogs obviously want to win, but if we’re basing this game on importance, then the nod goes to Alabama. Georgia could lose and still get a rematch in the College Football Playoff.

Georgia’s only challenge this season was a 10-7 win over the Clemson Tigers to open the season. They were not healthy then, though. The offense was working with a short deck in September.

That Georgia is different than this Georgia in the SEC Championship. Darnell Washington was absent, and now they have a two-headed monster at tight end with Washington and Brock Bowers.

Alabama is coming off a close call in the Iron Bowl this past weekend. They needed to come from behind to force overtime, and then won by 2 points, 24-22. It wasn’t the only nail biter for Alabama this season.

Head below for our free Georgia vs. Alabama prediction in the SEC Championship on December 4, 2021.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Georgia Bulldogs -6.5 (-110) -230 Over 49.5 (-110)
Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5 (-110) +190 Under 49.5 (-110)
Team Data Georgia Bulldogs Alabama Crimson Tide
Overall Record 12-0 11-1
ATS Record 8-4-0 6-6-0
Away/Home Record NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
ATS Away/Home NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
Points Per Game 33.2 35.3
Points Against Per Game 40.7 42.7
Passing Yards Per Game 240.3 341.8
Rushing Yards Per Game 202.0 149.8

Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction:

Alabama is scoring 42.7 points per game going into the SEC Championship, so what’s wrong if they are scoring that many points?

It’s important to note that the number is going to be skewed because of a few cupcake spots. However, the offensive line has been the most concerning unit on Alabama.

When the Crimson Tide have been up against competent teams with a pass rush, Bryce Young has been scrambling and looking for room too often.

Auburn had 7 sacks last week, with Derick Hall getting to Young three times. Even a bad New Mexico State team sacked Alabama twice three weeks back.

Brain Robinson Jr. is a hard runner, and while he isn’t Najee Harris, Robinson Jr. would be running for more behind the same offensive line from the team Harris had.

The Crimson Tide are just 80th in the FBS with 149.8 yards per game. That’s not like Alabama. I believe it’s going to be required to generate a ground game in this one.

My confidence in Alabama moving the ball on the ground is not good. The Bulldogs have stonewalled teams for just 79.4 rushing yards per game. That’s good for fourth in the country.


Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends:

Georgia

  • 11-0 overall in their previous 11 games versus the SEC
  • 10-5 ATS in their previous 15 games
  • 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games in December
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games in Week 14.
  • UNDER is 6-2 in their previous eight games

Alabama

  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog
  • 11-3 ATS in their previous 14 games after not covering the spread
  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards
  • 13-7 ATS in their previous 20 games on a Saturday
  • UNDER is 4-1-1 in their previous six games at a neutral site

If the Crimson Tide can’t run on Georgia, then they’re throwing into a secondary that has allowed 151.5 passing yards per game.

I agree that they haven’t played an offense like Alabama, but the manner in which they’ve manhandled every offense they’ve played has been incredibly impressive.

It’s hard to trust Alabama’s offensive line against this pass rush of the Bulldogs as well. Young is going to have to think fast.

The Bulldogs have allowed less than a touchdown per game with 6.9 points conceded. Most of the touchdowns they’ve given up were in garbage time with the backups on the field.

If we want to look at the starters, then it’d be less than 6.9 points a game. Georgia is known for their defense, but they can move the ball as well.

Georgia has put up 442.3 yards per game for 28th and 40.7 points per game this season, sixth in the FBS. With Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington on the field together, they’re going to be a matchup nightmare for the Crimson Tide.

Alabama is good, but Georgia has looked great this season. The Crimson Tide came close to losing to LSU, 20-14, Arkansas, 42-35, and Auburn, 24-22 OT, in the last month. This hasn’t been a typical Nick Saban season.

If Young gets rattled early on, Alabama may never recover against the pass rush. As tempting as the points look, backing the Georgia defense looks even better. I’m going with Georgia to win by 10 double digits in a 27-17 or 30-18 game.

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Georgia vs. Alabama Pick
GEORGIA BULLDOGS -6.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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