Iowa State vs. Oklahoma NCAAF Pick – Week 11

The Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma Sooners meet for a Saturday night Big 12 showdown in Norman. Oklahoma are coming off a shocker after they were tripped up against the Kansas State Wildcats on the road. They had a week off to process what happened and look at the tape over and over again, so we’ll see what the outcome of that bye week is on Saturday night.

It came at the perfect time, as their defense needed to hit the reset button after giving up 48 points. There was absolutely nothing else Jalen Hurts could do in that contest. He threw for 395 yards and rushed for 96 yards with a combined 4 touchdowns on the day.

It isn’t like the Sooners did a bad job containing Skylar Thompson and the Kansas State passing attack. He was held to 213 yards, but his ability to find the end zone on the ground was a different story. Thompson found the end zone 4 times with his legs, which complimented a huge day for James Gilbert in the backfield.

Gilbert ran for 105 yards on 8.1 yards per carry to aid the Wildcats in their win. The finality of the game came with some controversy. Oklahoma looked like they recovered an onside kick, but upon further review, a Sooner touched the ball before it went 10 yards, nullifying the recovery.

The Sooners have gotten into some tight battles with the Cyclones in recent memory. Iowa State have kept the game within 10 points or less in their last three meetings. They played to a 37-27 loss last season in Ames, but Brock Purdy did not play in that one. Purdy should prove to be a more difficult quarterback to defend than Zeb Noland on Saturday. Purdy and Iowa State are coming off a bye week as well, so they’ve had extra time to look at Oklahoma in the film room.

They fought but came up short in a 34-27 loss against Oklahoma State. Purdy must be much better than the 3 interceptions he threw against the Cowboys to find an upset in Norman on Saturday night. He will likely have to keep pace with Hurts who has been a headache for every defense he’s faced this season. Head below for our free Iowa State vs. Oklahoma pick on Saturday night.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Oklahoma Sooners NCAAF Week 11 Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Iowa State +14.5 (-110)
  • Oklahoma -14.5(-110)

Total:

  • Over 68(-110)
  • Under 68(-110)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Pick:

Jalen Hurts has put up some staggering numbers in Norman with Oklahoma. The Sooners have become a quarterback factory that feed off the player transfer system. Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray both transferred to Oklahoma and compiled impressive numbers as the Sooners’ signal caller. Next in line has been Hurts, who came over from Alabama after Tua stole his job as the starting QB. It was a perfect move for Hurts, as he went to a system at Oklahoma that favored his talents. Murray leaves and the Sooners replace him with another mobile quarterback who can also zip it around the field.

Hurts has put up monster numbers with 21 passing touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He has also rushed for 801 yards and 13 touchdowns. Hurts rushed for 954 yards and 13 touchdowns as a freshman at Alabama, so with a big day, he can set a career-high on the ground. Hurts has targeted future NFLer, CeeDee Lamb, often this season in the passing game. Lamb is likely going to be one of the first wide receivers off the board. He has hauled in 36 balls for 816 yards and 11 touchdowns going into Saturday.

The Oklahoma offense as a unit have rolled for 598.4 yards per game and 49.3 points a game. Both figures rank 1st in the nation, with UCF the only other team in the nation who are averaging over 550 yards per game, so the Sooners have the best offense by a large margin. That said, Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has drawn up a pretty good game plan against Oklahoma in the past.

Problem being for Campbell and Iowa State, Lincoln Riley has had an extra week to game plan for the Cyclones. Oklahoma have run over everybody to this point, and I don’t see Iowa State being up to the challenge defensively. This is a team who made it look pretty easy against Alabama when they had time to prepare.

Iowa State have had an underrated season offensively this season. They rank in the top-20, with the 16th best offense in college football. The Cyclones enter Saturday with 479.5 yards per game and an average of 36 points scored a game. Iowa State more than likely aren’t going to hit those numbers, but they should likely be good enough for 30 or 32 points on Saturday night.

Nor do I see Oklahoma matching their average of 49 points per game, but 45 or 44 would still be more than enough to top Iowa State in this matchup. Look for Hurts to put together a monster game in primetime, as he attempts to take the shine away from Joe Burrow or Tua on Saturday. Expect a fun game with plenty of points to get this game OVER the total. Good luck, and as always, use proper bankroll management for all of your bets this week.

The Bet
OVER 68
Kyle E
Kyle E / author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.