Jets Patriots Line and Spread for Divisional Playoff Game

The Jets and the Patriots continue their rivalry this week and if it’s anything like their week 13 regular season matchup, the Jets season will end on a very low note. But if we’ve learned anything over the years it’s that rematches from the regular season hardly ever have the same result. This week’s match is one of the most highly anticipated of the year, and it gets going on Sunday at 4:30 EST from Gillette Stadium.

Spread and Betting Line Comparison Chart:

Betting Site
Over/Under Line
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Patriots -9 (-110)
Patriots -8.5 (-110)
Patriots -9 (-110)

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The Patriots finished the 2010 season at 14-2, and many believe that this year’s team is playing better than the 2007 team that went undefeated during the regular season. Tom Brady is the MVP favorite after compiling 3,900 passing yards, 36 TDs and a miniscule 4 INTs, and he’s once again shown he can take an average receiving unit and make them exceed expectations. His relationship with young TE’s Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez has become something of a scary thing for opposing defenses. Gronkowski scored 10 TDs this year while Hernandez scored 6, and they’ll have to be key contributors this week if the Patriots are to have as much success as they did previously against the Jets. In week 13, Hernandez finished the game with 51 yards and 1 TD, and their TE’s allow the Patriots to run the ball so well. When Gronkowski and Hernandez are contributing it opens up the running game for New England, as they act as such good run blockers and pass catchers. The Pats ran the ball with Danny Woodhead and BenJarvis Green-Ellis quite well during the season. They finished 9th on the year, running for over 123 yards per game, with Green-Ellis leading the charge with a career high 1,008 rushing yards and 13 TDs. He has bought into Belichick’s running back system of any one man can play an important role, and since they shipped out Laurence Maroney early in the year, Green-Ellis has stepped up. If the Jets can play run defense as well as they did last week, then they have a fighter’s chance.

The Jets upset the Colts last week in Indy, and while many people assumed Manning would breeze passed them at home, New York came out and played a very good road game. They held the Colts offense to 16 points, and Nick Folk kicked them to a win in the final seconds. Sanchez was erratic and inaccurate at times, and continued his poor play from the regular season. He finished the game 18/31 for 0 TDs and 1 INT. His accuracy is his biggest problem at the moment, and against the Colts he consistently missed open targets, most notably to Braylon Edwards and Dustin Keller while in the red zone. So how did they win this game? By running the ball. LT shredded the Colts defense for 82 yards on only 16 carries, for 2 TDs, while Shonn Greene added 70 yards on 19 carries. However, the Patriots rush defense is much better than Indy’s, and by giving up an average of 108 yards per game, the Jets won’t be in as easy this week.

The key to this game sounds obvious, but it’s obvious for a reason. It’ll be up to Rex Ryan to dial up enough confusing blitz’s to throw Brady off his game, and the running game will have to sustain long drives that tires out the defense. This is easier said than done, but if there’s one team that can disrupt and distract the Patriots enough to throw them off their game, it’s the Jets.

Jets vs. Patriots Early Spread, Line and Betting Odds:


New York Jets +8.5
@ New England Patriots -8.5

Game Total:

Over (-110)
Under (-110)

Check out our Betting Odds Explained article if you don’t understand how to read sports betting odds.

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Spread: The line here is big because of the Patriots 45-3 whopping of the Jets during the season. As good as the Pats have been and as surprisingly poor the Jets have been, I think a lot of people will take the Jets this week, and the oddsmakers have made the line this big in anticipation of a lot of money going on the Pats. But I think the line will go down a point to 7.5 by game time. The Patriots play close games in the playoffs, and last year in the first round against the Ravens, Baltimore came out and controlled the clock, shut down Brady, and came away with an impressive victory. The oddsmakers know the money will go on the Jets, and they should bring this number down by gametime.

Game Total: The Patriots historically play a different style in the playoffs than they do during the regular season. They are more workmanlike and sustain longer drives for slightly less points. They also face tougher teams and Belichick understands that they must respect their opponents. This number would be lower if the Jets defense played to their potential, but without a consistently healthy Darelle Revis, they haven’t been as good as last year. I think this number will stay where it is, and I’ll most likely lean towards the over later on in the week because of the Patriots recent play at home.

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