Kansas State Arkansas Spread and Free Pick for Cotton Bowl

The college football bowl season continues this weekend with the 11th ranked Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) of the Big 12 traveling to Dallas, TX to take on the 7th ranked Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) of the SEC this Friday night (8:00pm ET) in the Cotton Bowl. Kansas State won three straight games to close out the regular season, including a 30-23 win over Iowa St. on December 3rd in which they failed to cover the 10 point line. Arkansas lost their finale 41-17 on November 25 to number one LSU on the road to snap what had been a seven-game winning streak. Kansas St. is 9-3 ATS this season, while Arkansas is 7-5 ATS this year.

The Wildcats average 33.1 points per game to rank 30th among all FBS teams despite ranking only 95th in total offense with 343.4 yards per game on average. Dual-threat quarterback Collin Klein is the team’s top running threat (1,099 rushing yards, 26 TDs) in addition to his passing exploits (1,745 passing yards, 12 TDs, 5 INTs) for what is a heavily run-oriented offense (1937 YPG, 25th among FBS teams). The defense for KSU ranks 69th in scoring among FBS teams with 27.8 PGP allowed and 74th in total defense with 398.8 YPG allowed. The Razorbacks rank 14th nationally in scoring offense with 37.4 PPG on average and 25 in total offense with 446 YPG this season. The strength of the offense is the passing attack (307.8 YPG, 13th among FBS teams) led by quarterback Tyler Wilson (3,422 yards passing, 22 TDs, 6 INTs). The Arkansas defense ranks 38th in scoring with 22.8 PPG allowed and 52nd in total defense with 371.4 YPG allowed.

Kansas State vs. Arkansas Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Kansas State Wildcats +7.5
@Arkansas Razorbacks -7.5

Game Total:

Over 63 (-110)
Under 63 (-110)

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Kansas State vs. Arkansas Pick:

Kansas State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, 8-20 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record. Arkansas is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite, 5-3 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games against a team with a winning record. The over is 16-5 in Kansas State’s last 21 games overall and 36-17 in their last 53 games as an underdog. The over is 5-0 in Arkansas’ last 5 games overall and 5-1 in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record. The two teams have had no recent meetings.

Both Kansas St. and Arkansas feature very explosive offenses that can put points up in a hurry, and defensive units that do not match up favorably with the opposition. Arkansas ranks 80th in the nation in run defense with 174.3 YPG allowed, which should allow Klein and the Wildcats’ prolific rushing attack to run up and down the field in this game. Kansas St. has a secondary that ranks 105th among FBS teams with 267.2 YPG allowed through the air, a very favorable matchup for Wilson and company to put up plenty of points through the air. Arkansas scored over 40 points in three of their final four games, and they are eminently capable of turning that trick again here. The Razorbacks ‘only two losses were to the two teams playing for the BCS National Championship, and they are a strong favorite in this game. Picking Arkansas against the spread is certainly not a bad play here, but the stronger play is to take the over in what should be a fast-paced and high-scoring game.

PICK = Over 63  **Note: Most books have moved the line up to 63.5 or 64… bet at www.5Dimes.com to get it at 63 plus you will receive up to $520 in FREE money if you contact support after your first deposit!!**